Overview:
Two important parts of the game are turnovers and blocking. It is important to realise what the chances are of what you are attempting to do. Blocking comes in two parts: firstly the chances of taking down the other guy whilst remaining standing and the chances that a block will result in a turnover for yourself. Knowing the probabilities and statistics for the blocking side of the game can be vital to success.
So I present the following charts involving the main blocking skills and their odds of success.
- Tackle isn’t listed as you you can just check the columns that exclude the Dodge skill for the defender.
- For Loner, you can look at the Pro rows except you lose a reroll as well.
- For when you have Block vs Wrestle, it is assumed you want to remain standing, if you don’t mind them using their Wrestle, you can treat it as though you have Wrestle yourself.
Charts showing the odds of a successful knock down:
| One Die Blocks | ||||||
| Attacker | Defender | |||||
| None | Block | Dodge | Block+Dodge | Wrestle | Wrestle+Dodge | |
| None | 33.3% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Block | 50% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Wrestle | 50% | 50% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 50% | 33.3% |
| Pro | 44.4% | 44.4% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 44.4% | 23.6% |
| Pro + Block | 62.5% | 44.4% | 44.4% | 23.6% | 44.4% | 23.6% |
| Pro + Wrestle | 62.5% | 62.5% | 44.4% | 44.4% | 62.5% | 44.4% |
| None + RR | 55.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% | 30.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% |
| Block + RR | 75% | 55.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% |
| Wrestle + RR | 75% | 75% | 55.6% | 55.6% | 75% | 55.6% |
| Two Dice Blocks | ||||||
| Attacker | Defender | |||||
| None | Block | Dodge | Block+Dodge | Wrestle | Wrestle+Dodge | |
| None | 55.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% | 30.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% |
| Block | 75% | 55.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% | 55.6% | 30.6% |
| Wrestle | 75% | 75% | 55.6% | 55.6% | 75% | 55.6% |
| Pro | 67.9% | 67.9% | 41.2% | 41.2% | 67.9% | 41.2% |
| Pro + Block | 84.4% | 67.9% | 67.9% | 41.2% | 67.9% | 41.2% |
| Pro + Wrestle | 84.4% | 84.4% | 67.9% | 67.9% | 84.4% | 67.9% |
| None + RR | 80.2% | 80.2% | 51.8% | 51.8% | 80.2% | 51.8% |
| Block + RR | 93.8% | 80.2% | 80.2% | 51.8% | 80.2% | 51.8% |
| Wrestle + RR | 93.8% | 93.8% | 80.2% | 80.2% | 93.8% | 80.2% |
| Three Dice Blocks | ||||||
| Attacker | Defender | |||||
| None | Block | Dodge | Block+Dodge | Wrestle | Wrestle+Dodge | |
| None | 70.4% | 70.4% | 42.1% | 42.1% | 70.4% | 42.1% |
| Block | 87.5% | 70.4% | 70.4% | 42.1% | 70.4% | 42.1% |
| Wrestle | 87.5% | 87.5% | 70.4% | 70.4% | 87.5% | 70.4% |
| Pro | 79.9% | 79.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | 79.9% | 54.3% |
| Pro + Block | 93% | 79.9% | 79.9% | 54.3% | 79.9% | 54.3% |
| Pro + Wrestle | 93% | 93% | 79.9% | 79.9% | 93% | 79.9% |
| None + RR | 91.2% | 91.2% | 66.5% | 66.5% | 91.2% | 66.5% |
| Block + RR | 97.6% | 91.2% | 91.2% | 66.5% | 91.2% | 66.5% |
| Wrestle + RR | 97.6% | 97.6% | 91.2% | 91.2% | 97.6% | 91.2% |
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Pages: 1 2
July 2nd, 2009 at 5:43 pm
For using Pro the calculation is 1/3 * (1+(2/3*1/2))=0.44. It is the Pro and Reroll calculations I am the least certain on and if any maths gurus care to jump in and explain it in more detail I am happy to defer, or be corrected if they are wrong. The answers seem to be in the right ball park though, ie Pro should succeed more times than without it but less times than with a Reroll.
The two dice block with no skills, you suceed 20 times of the 36 combinations or 20/36 which is the same as 5/9. To work that out mathematically instead of writing out all 36 combinations to find that you do need to find the odds of failing it then subtact that from 1. So one one dice you fail to knock them over on the skull, both down, and the two push results, so 4 of the 6 sides 4/6. You are rolling two dice so multiply them together 16/36 which cancels down to 4/9. 1 – 4/9 = 5/9 = 20/36 = 55.6%.
Your last point regarding Wrestle, it is assumed the aim of the block is to knock the other guy over, typcially you use Wrestle for blitzing the opposing ball carrier. So you knock them over 1/2 the time. It is ignoring the fact that you also go prone, as this isn’t a turnover and is assumed that was your intention. If you didn’t want to go prone, then you just look at the odds as though you didn’t have Wrestle.
Hope that clears it up a bit.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Fantastic info Coach! Much appreciated. Question for you about the calculations used to determine some of the results. My math skills are far from elite, so bear with me
Regarding a one die block, I understand the odds of a succesful knock down, while remaining standing, are 2 of 6. However, when Pro is factored for the Att (None for the Def), how do you arrive at 44.4%? Is this due to the 50% chance that Pro will not result in a re-roll? How does this result in 4 of 9 chances of success?
Regarding a two dice block, what calculations are used to arrive at 55.6% success rate for Att/Def using None? Given this % relates to 5 of 9, what constitute the 5 succesful results. Before looking at your chart, I thought a two dice block, with Att/Def None would result in a 66.7% success rate (2/6 + 2/6 ). I do not doubt you have posted the correct % as I have seen these same odds elsewhere. However, I would like to understand what I am doing wrong regarding the calculations.
Finally, given wrestling results in both Att/Def lying prone on the pitch (rather than a Def knock down, while the Att remains standing), shouldn’t the odds be 33.3% the Att will remain standing, while the Def is knocked down. Again, what am I not seeing?
Don’t take any of this as a criticism. I am just trying to resolve a bit of confusion on my end. Again, your post is much appreciated.
Cheers,
J
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:06 pm
His odds are right across the board (so far as I’ve seen). The other way to look at 2 die unskilled blocks is that they’re the same as 1 die blocks with rerolls. Basically, if you’re looking for a specific case (knocking someone down) it doesn’t matter if you roll one die and then the other or if you roll both at the same time.
To Jyrmar, you’re running into the problem a lot of people run into with stats, think of it this way, by your logic a three die block would’ve meant 1/3+1/3+1/3 = 100% chance of success, which I’m sure you realize is wrong (As I’m sure you’ve seen a 3 die block fail). You have to check for failure before checking the next in line, so you multiply the odds of failure times the next odds of success for each new roll. So your first die has a 1/3 chance of success, then, if you failed (2/3 of the time) you check your next die which has a 1/3 chance of success. So your odds of success are the two possibilities of success added together 1/3 (the first die roll) + 2/3*1/3 (The second die roll if the first didn’t work) = 55.6%.
Hopefully that’s a little clearer, this kind of thing is easier to explain by showing someone… I should know, I’m a stastician and I have to explain these kinds of things all the time.
So for Pro, it’s 1/3 + 1/2*2/3*1/3. You add in the extra half because there’s only a 50% chance you get to check the second die.
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Coach and Sneezeguard,
Thank you very much… terrific explanations about the math involved. Definitely clears things up. The odds charts on this site are incredibly helpful as no one wants to have to manually calculate the odds before each play. But, it is nice to know the formulas involved. I have seen a few threads on the official site that could certainly benefit from this sort of information!
I have not played BB since the mid 90′s due to lack of interest on the part of friends. For whatever reason, I never gave FUMBBL a shot. I always thought the mix of American football (with a sprinkling of futbol rules/concepts), the Warhammer fantasy universe and sports management features made for a fantastic gaming concept. And even my wife finds the “Did you know…” blurbs absolutely hilarious.
I was thrilled to discover GW gave Cyanide the green light to develop BB, as I played Chaos League a bit and enjoyed it. The articles, tips and suggestions on this site are incredibly useful in bringing noobs up to speed on basic/advanced strategy. And, I definitely count myself as a noob once again trying to understand all the subtleties involved in making my elves less squishy and more effective against the hordes of dwarves, orces, and other wretched scum on the other side of the pitch.
Thank you for this website and your kind responses above! Anything I can do to contribute, please let me know. Looking forward to your “how to use it and who should select it” article about the Leap skill. Still not totally clear if tackle zones ever factor into the leap agility roll or if the roll is an unmodified agility check, regardless of the square the Wardancer is leaping into… anyway, thanks again mates!
Cheers,
J
September 3rd, 2009 at 9:55 am
The title of the first set of tables seems a bt misleading?
“Charts showing the odds of a successful knock down whilst remaining standing yourself”
I would asume that by “remaining standing yourself” you mean actually not having a turnover or attacker not being knocked down? i.e. when the attacker uses wrestle after a both down result then both players are down (as opposed to the table title) but no turnover ensues. Nevertheless the “attacker using wrestle” situation seems to have been counted as good in those tables, correct?
September 3rd, 2009 at 11:16 am
Hmm there does seem to be some contradiction there from that. You are correct in saying that the odds for the attacker having wrestle have counted yourself going prone as good. I’ll clear that up later, thanks for pointing it out.
September 3rd, 2009 at 11:48 am
No probs.
For me the table is stating the odds of having the opponent player down (including a wrestle skill use) without a turnover; from that point of view the tables are quite correct and maybe just the title may need to be changed a little. Using wrestle could indeed be a desired result so no conflict in the odds.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:55 am
Here’s a way to see the 1 dice Pro row as x in x chances of success (it is 8 in 18 instead of 4 in 9):
The 18 possibilites are as follows; 3 possibilities for the first block roll multiplied by 2 possibilities for the Pro roll multiplied by 3 possibilities for the second block roll. We are counting only the successful possibilities; these consist of possibilities where the first block roll succeeds, and where the first block roll fails but both the Pro roll and the second block roll succeed. There are 6 possibilites where the first block roll succeeds (success or failure on the pro roll [even though you wouldn't actually roll it!] and success and push and failure on the second block roll). There is 1 possibility along the branch where the first roll is a push (pro roll and second block roll both succeed) and 1 possibility where the first roll is a failure (again, pro roll and second block both succeed). That is a total of 6+1+1=8 possible ways to succeed out of 18 possible permutations of the 3 dice rolls. 8/18=.44444 repeating.
(Someone may quibble that it doesn’t matter whether or not the two sorts of failure, push and attacker down, are different, and that these odds would be the same if the block die had 2 stars and 4 skulls. This is true but I was trying to give names to the different branches of the possibilities tree).
February 17th, 2010 at 10:03 pm
Any chance you could include a -2d block chart?
February 17th, 2010 at 10:37 pm
Look on Page 2!
June 16th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you have a typo in the first table “One Die Blocks,” the “Dodge” column, and the “None + RR” row says 36.6%, and should be 30.6%.
July 21st, 2010 at 12:18 pm
Thanks, I’ve updated the table.
August 9th, 2010 at 7:08 pm
Needs tackle on the tables
August 9th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
If you read the blurb before the actual tables it explains why Tackle isn’t listed.
November 26th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
Great post (and site) Coach.
One thing I’d like to see and I don’t think you covered are the odds of a blocking turnover with the defender still standing. It’s simple enough on a 1-die block, but gets complicated for the mathematically challenged beyond that.
This is especially interesting to evaluate for a “block-heavy” team, such as norse for example, when evaluating your chances of dodging out of a hairy tackle zone vs. staying and letting the risk of dodging vs. blocking vs. turning the ball over to the opposing team.
November 29th, 2010 at 11:22 am
Thank you Wiseman, the only way you will have a turnover and leave the opponent standing is if you rolled a Skull, or a Skull and Both down against an opponent with Block (and you don’t have Block or Wrestle). So you just use the Block or Wrestle (second row) numbers for that.
December 6th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
what does RR stand for in the chart?
December 6th, 2010 at 9:34 pm
It stands for Reroll, so it is the odds if you take into account using a team reroll when doing the block. Note that you may not necessarily need to use the reroll as you might get the result you need first time.
July 7th, 2011 at 7:49 am
One die + Pro
Knockdown = (72+24)/216
1st Die
2/6 4/6
success branch
3/6 3/6
Reroll granted No Reroll
branch
2/6 4/6
success failure
Chance 72/216 24/216 48/216 72/216
Knockdown = (72+24)/216 = 44.4%
Probability trees are an easier way of calculating the odds