## Regnat Rattus (Skaven) vs. Bawl Players (High Elf)

During a tournament match at the Old World Football Tournament League (OFTL), the game between Mardaed’s Bawl Players and Kal_Durak’s Regnat Rattus came down to this play. Mardaed’s Bawl Players were able to stall and score as the kicking team during the first half. The stall left the Bawl Players short-handed, but they were still able to position the ball carrier on a break-away run, 2 spaces from scoring, AND more importantly, too far from the stormvermin to blitz.

You are the Skaven coach. 2D Blitz the ball carrier! Can you ball like Kal?

##### Goal:

- 2D blitz the High Elf ball carrier. Do it in the least amount of 2+ die rolls.

##### Rules:

- You must do it in 1 turn.
- Assume that all 2d (your favor) blocks will result in pows. All 2d blocks in opponent’s favor and 1d blocks will result as skulls.
- Ensure every 1d non-block action attempt is a 2+ (i.e. passes, catches, hand-offs, dodges, all should be 2+ for success). Assume successful rolls.

##### Rosters:

**Bawl Players (High Elf)**

# | Position | MV | STR | AGI | AV | Skills |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

2 | Lineman | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | |

4 | Blitzer | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | Block, Guard |

5 | Catcher | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 | Catch, Tackle |

6 | Catcher | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 | Catch |

7 | Lineman | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | Wrestle |

8 | Catcher | 9 | 3 | 5 | 7 | AGI+, MV+, Dodge, Block |

10 | Lineman | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 |

**Regnat Rattus (Skaven)**

# | Position | MV | STR | AGI | AV | Skills |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | Rat Ogre | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | Frenzy, Mighty Blow, Loner, Wild Animal, Break Tackle, Juggernaut, Prehensile Tail, |

2 | Stormvermin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 | Block, Guard, Tackle |

4 | Thrower | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | Pass, Sure Hands, Safe Throw, Accurate |

5 | Lineman | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |

7 | Runner | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | Dodge, Sidestep, Block |

8 | Runner | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | Dodge, Block, Sidestep |

9 | Lineman | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |

11 | Lineman | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | Kick |

12 | Stormvermin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 | Block, Guard |

13 | Runner | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | Dodge, Leap, Big Hand |

14 | Lineman | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | Wrestle |

#### View Hint

#### View what Kal did

Kal chain-pushed a wrestle lineman in range to blitz the ball carrier with support from the gutter runner to get a 2D block.

For the actual steps:

1. Move the Gutter Runner 13 and GFI to mark with Ball Carrier

2. Position Skaven player 12 north of skaven player 14.

3. Position Skaven player 2 directly below skaven player 14.

4. 2D Block Elf player 2 with your Skaven player 8 and push player 14 to the left.

5. Blitz with skaven player 14 using 2 GFI’s to attack the ball carrier.

In the real game, Kal_Durak 2D blitzed the ball carrier, stunning him. Kal_Durak scored on the next turn! On the following kick-off, the Rats Blitzed!, caged up around the ball, and scored on the last turn to win the game! But it all happened because of this ridiculous play.

The real lesson from this game was learned by Mardaed. He had stood up Elf Player 2 during his last turn. If he had just kept him on the ground, Kal would have been looking at a 6GFI 2D blitz, 4GFI 1D blitz, and this with the blitzer (the gutter runner) having no block or wrestle.

GR13 ->1 GFI to supply assist on 5 (1x 2+ d6)

SV12 -> moves between 6 & 14 (0)

SV2 -> moves directly next to 14 (0)

GR8 -> hits lineelf2, with 2 assists (1 2d block)

LR14 -> blitzes catcher5, needing 2 GFI with 1 assist (2x 2+ d6 & 1x 2d block)

Good job.

Oh, and I love the challenges. Can you tell? 🙂

Ok, so let’s change the rules a bit and do a little more indepth analysis of the choices here:

Let’s compare these two options:

1. The one above

2. Making 2 GFI each with 12 and 2, blitzing with 13, requiring 2 GFI and a 2d block. Mind that he does not have wrestle or block. (Block would be the choice if given an option, as Elf 5 does not have block).

Let’s look at the probabilities of success, without a RR for simplicity.

1. (following the outline above) Here is the chance of success:

5/6 * (0.75 + 8/36 * 2/3) * 5/6 * 5/6 *0.75~=0.39

Explanation

GFI * (change fg gettin LR14 free, eitherby succesful block or the alternative, pushbakc and dodging) * GFI *GFI* Chance of succesful block on ball carrier.

2. Chance of success (5/6)^4 * 20/36 =0.17

Explanation

4 GFI * Chance of succesful block on ball carrier, taking nito account that 13 does not have block.

Alternative: As ball carrier does not have block, let’s say we feel it is a succes rolling a block with 13, letting our GR fall down with the ball carrier. Then we get (5/6)^4 * 0.75=0.25

Of course, having a RR will change this a bit, but not much, as both moves has mostly safe dice rolls.

CONCLUSIONS: Alternative 1 is by far the best chance of success in real situation.

HOW TO DO THIS ESTIMATION OFF YOUR BACK IN A GAME: Pretty much using the rules by Skip. You just have to take into account that the block of GR 8 might not get your man free, and then you have to dodge. But a quick calculation sees taht this is a quite small chance of failing: Block not getting elf down * fail dodge = 1/4 * 1/3 = 1/12.

You should stay away of doing 6 GFI!!! The calulation show how these suckers add up to failure.

Bit of a late reaction, but your chances of success are wrong, since you are counting a both down as a success, but both down won’t give you the push you need.

I make the odds 5/6*(20/36 + 12/36 * 4/6)* 5/6 * 5/6 *0.75~=0.34

Although if it doesn’t work but isn’t a turnover (basically the 3/36 rolls with a both down in the first block with the block skill) you can carry on as plan 2

Oh, which I’ve just noticed you also got wrong, it’s 0.27, not 0,17. Accepting both down with no block makes it 0.30

In case it’s not obvious I love these problems, when I saw this I thought this was going to be about setting up to stop the 1ttd, which is a problem I’d be interested in seeing peoples reactions too.

7 moves to 10, no rolls needed

13 moves to 10, no rolls needed

14 does 2d block on 2.

8, now free, blitzes and 2d blocks 10.

lol, thought it was 10 who had the ball.

Doesn’t a blitz cost 1M point? If so, both #14 and #8 can’t blitz unless the were previously somehow chainpushed. I guess:

– #13 GFIs once and marks the ball carrier

– #2 and #12 move and take place beside #14

– #8 2Dblocks #2 and chainpushes #14 one square

– #14 GFIs twice (1 for the move and 1 for the blitz action) and 2Dblitzes the ball carrier.

Thanks for taking the time to post these puzzles!

Nos 12 & 2 GFI twice each to assist next to ball carrier no5.

Gutter Runner 13 then blitzes with 2 assists, so 2D block?