Tactics Wizard: Lightning Bolt or Fireball?

[Ponghines]

Hi guys. I recently lost a game with a fireball on my 5 players cage that killed 2 of my guys (a WD and the catcher that had the ball) and KOed another 1. I still think that fireball on the cage was a bad play but I wonder if I'm right.
It was a Skaven vs Wood Elf (me) game and he had 2 ag5 GR so I choose to bite his fireball instead of LBolt with this motivation:
LB is almost guaranteed loose ball and little difficulty in getting it even if cought by 1 of my players (blitz with strip ball), but has almost no chance of injuries
FB only 50% chance of loose ball, in case a chance to have it scatter in a no TZ square, and 75% of 1 KO or CAS injury.
Now the injury chance should be 50% (FB hit)*58%(AV7 armor break with MB)*41%(KO or better)=12% lets say 15% to count MB even in injury roll. 15*5 players =75% chance to have 1 KO or better. Is it right?
And most importantly is it worth for you to pass on a so bigger chance to get the ball to go after a 75% KO or better hope?
I'd like to know what do you think.

 

[DireSickFish]

There's no real winning with a wizard. It's the best inducement for a good reason. I prefer to eat the fireball if I can knowing that it could totally destroy my game. I've lost games because of fireballs plenty of times. But if I set up to fear it then my formation often gets to lose.

What I sometimes do is a wide cage. It's a normal cage but one of the sides has 2 spaces between the corner players instead of 1. This means if he fireballs the ball he can at best hit 3 players total. Which means they usually wont fireball me.

 

[cjblackburn]

As always it depends. I don't want to count on an armour break, it all depends on what happens to the ball. If it's a full cage a bolt will probably not bounce anywhere useful. If it is a cage on its own then I only want 1 or 2 knocked down to be sure of a blitz on the ball or to clear the ball. Those are better odds than a bolt. I will want people in position to get and protect the ball. There are plenty of times when the bolt is better, normally a loose screen. This of course depends on who I am playing as if it is a team that can pick up the ball and move it easily I want to be pretty sure of getting the ball safe.

 

[TravelScrabble]

It depends a lot on the teams/state of the board but broadly speaking I prefer fireballs on 5 men to the bolt. Bolt has 1/6 of doing sweet FA and even if it does drop the bc recovery can be a b*** whereas a Fireball on 5 players will almost certainly open up at least some part of the cage for a blitz on the BC and usually downs a couple to make recovery a lot easier. Agi 5 gutters changes that equation of course.

Against Skaven with a wizard and especially with agi 5 gutters I wouldn't cage in midfield under any circumstances if I could avoid it. Like DSF says a loose cage is often a great option against wizards but not against agi 5. As a bash team in that situation I would endeavor to have multiple layers of protection at all times and rather not score than give up a good wizard chance. But for woodies your best defense is to keep the ball deep with 2 players back and make them come after you. If they send multiple players after the ball then you move it up and cage deep where it become much more difficult for them to spirit the ball away. If they play cagey and hit receivers while only sending one or two players after the ball you blitz their threats and stall. The goal is to score in one turn, deally on turn 8, and simply never leave the bc in the midfield for them to bolt/fireball.

 

[Ponghines]

As a Wood Elf I love the Wizard stadium but I m still figurimg out how to play agains the wizard. I usually play agains LB, I have blodge bc so I can live with blitzes.
In that case it was end of 1st half. I dont wanted to stall in my half cause of wiz and his ag 5 so I caged deep in his half with some guys in the back. I was kicking and under 1-0 so if he used his wiz and didnt get the ball I was going to second half 1-1 receiving and with my wiz. Even if he got the ball he couldnt try to score, so 1-0 under but still recieving and with my wiz, not bad. Actually the plan backfired because of injuries but not so much: in fact even down of 1 wd and 1 catcher in second half I scored, robbed his ball with a LB and scored again on turn 16. He then 1TTD (with some luck...) and won the coin for overtime and that was game.
What I dont get is that everyone keeps saying that FB is soo good vs AV7 causing a lot of injuryes: if my numbers are right 75% of getting a KO/Cas is not so scary to me...

 

[Nikolai II]

If playing against valuable AV7 players, then a 5+ player fireball on the best of the bunch is an extra point towards using the ball instead of the bolt.

But that's just it. It's just another thing to consider. The goal is (presumably) to win the league, meaning you probably want to win the match. If the opponent is your main contender you might also want to cripple or kill one of his best players, while if he's trailing and is still to play your contenders you may want their team to remain intact..

So for my part it comes down to - if downing any of three players gives you a good shot at the ball anyway, then fireball away because it's more likely to put you in a good place than a 5/6 bolt.

 

[TravelScrabble]

You're right about the cas, you don't get many cas of wizards, I basically assume I'm never going to get one.

 

[Borke]

The chance to cause at least one "KO or CAS" with a 5 men fireball is actually considerably less than 75%.

First, let's calculate the chance to cause a "KO or CAS" to one individual player, using the fireball.

Chance to knock the player down: 50%
Chance to cause a "KO or CAS" on an AV7 player that was knocked down, assuming no niggling injuries: 31.3% (see http://bbtactics.com/armor-break-and-injury-tables/)
Overall chance to cause a "KO or CAS" on an AV7 player: 15.65%

Now, to calculate the odds of causing at least one "KO or CAS", we need to calculate the opposing odds: That all five players do not suffer a "KO or CAS". The odds of this are calculated by the formula (1 - p)^5, where p=15.65% is the chance that an individual player does suffer a "KO or CAS". Therefore, the odds of all five players not suffering a "KO or CAS" is (1 - 0.1565)^5, or 42.7%. The odds of causing at least one "KO or CAS" is then the opposite: 57.3%. [just in case you're wondering, this can be split down to 39.6% odds of causing exactly one "KO or CAS", and 17.9% odds of causing two or more "KO or CAS"]


So yeah, a fireball is still not a very efficient way to remove the opponent's players. I would personally never use the fireball only for the purpose of getting a numerical advantage, I would only use it if I think there are good chances that I can achieve a great tactical gain from the result of the fireball. As others have already pointed out, the fireball can occasionally be a better tool to pop the ball lose than the lightning bolt, because on a standard cage the odds that it knocks nobody down are only 3.1%. And if you're in a situation where knocking down any one of the five players will at least give you a good shot at the ball (with the following blitz), then that's preferable to the 16.7% failure rate of the lightning bolt.

 

[Street]

I used a fireball on 7 players once (They grouped up to try and take down my fanatic)

Did it on the thought of getting some cas from it for numbers advantage. Result?

1 Stunned linerat, other 6 players remained standing.

So I agree with Borkes assessment, do not wizard for cas attempts. (Unless you somehow got through whole game without needing to use it, then lightnign bolt their best player followed up with a foul!)

 

[DireSickFish]

Yeah you should be using it when knockdowns helps your game. Not to get injuries. They're just a happy little bonus.

 

[steveo110]

After a little experience with both I now always only ever use the lightning bolt. The havoc that the fireball could achieve, as pictured in my imagination, never seems to live up to the reality of what happens on the pitch.

Obviously if the fireball is used by your opponent - then it always seems to generate unholy destruction akin to a napalm strike...

 

[Veggente85]

I quite always use the fireball when the ball is protected, lb only when the carrier is unprotected and I can reach the ball. For me, the best use of the wizard is a fireball on many players that give you a clean blitz sack attempt if at least 1-2 of them go down.