[Cyanide] Some help with stats please...

[Lebe666]

So I'm mathematically deficient and haven't seen anything regarding these odds. So please what are the % and/or Odds for:

A1) No skill fouler of being ejected by the referee ?

A2) Sneaky Git of being ejected against AV9 armor foul ?

B) Risk of getting any "Attacker Down " in -2 die ? (1/3?)

C) Chance of crowd surfing someone 2 squares away from sideline with +2 die in both times? So in the 2nd die roll only would be bad.

C2) Chance of doing the same with -2 die rolls both times ?

Thanks

[Mico Selva]

Ok, let's see:

A1: No skill fouler of being ejected by the referee ?

Depends on the AV of the opponent (note that every assist effectively reduces his AV by 1):

AV10: 17.59%
AV 9: 18.52%
AV 8: 20.37%
AV 7: 22.22%
Av 6: 25%
AV 5: 26.58%
AV 4: 27.78%
AV 3: 29.63%
AV 2 or lower: 30.56%

A2) Sneaky Git of being ejected against AV9 armor foul ?

7.41%

B) Risk of getting any "Attacker Down " in -2 die ? (1/3?)

30.6%

C) Chance of crowd surfing someone 2 squares away from sideline with +2 die in both times? So in the 2nd die roll only would be bad.

Not sure if You mean a as a good result on the first die, but assuming that You want a first and any of the second, and that victim has no Dodge (in Fumbbl they can just not use it too, but in Cyanide using Dodge is mandatory): 49.4%

C2) Chance of doing the same with -2 die rolls both times ?

This is harder to determine, because the victim chooses the dice and it can't be sure if they use or on the first roll, so we'll need to count two numbers here:

1. If the victim chooses over : 19.8%
2. If the victim chooses over : 7.4%

Hope this helps!

[Rusty]

Also remember that Samba Action Calculator is your friend.

[Gallows Bait]

If you mean the person committing the foul, then they will be ejected on a double on 2D6, of which there is a 1 in 6 chance (16.7% roughly)

A sneaky git is only ejected if that 2D6 breaks armour.

For an AV9 player that would be a double 5 (10) or double 6 (12) only - so a 2 in 36 chance (5.6% roughly).

[Viajero]

Regarding fouling Dode did long time ago a wonderful analysis including charts with probabilities and AV. I'll see if i can Google it out.

[Lebe666]

Originally Posted by Gallows Bait

If you mean the person committing the foul, then they will be ejected on a double on 2D6, of which there is a 1 in 6 chance (16.7% roughly)

A sneaky git is only ejected if that 2D6 breaks armour.

For an AV9 player that would be a double 5 (10) or double 6 (12) only - so a 2 in 36 chance (5.6% roughly).

Yes its the person committing the foul. Once armor is broken though there is a 2nd chance of rolling doubles. So that 16% is just first roll ?

The Av9 actually is a bit harder to figure... if you have 2 assists a 4+4 would break armor and get you kicked out. Which is what happened to me yesterday.

[Lebe666]

Thanks guys... i've been having atrocious luck in fouling. Was trying to figure out if my simple in my head calculations were off by much.

Rusty I've tried the Samba without much success for some rolls.

Viajero if you could find what you wrote I'd like ! Thanks.

[Lebe666]

B) Risk of getting any "Attacker Down " in -2 die ? (1/3?)
30.6%

Tried it in Samba... with a RR that would be 9% chance ? Wow...

[Gallows Bait]

Originally Posted by Lebe666

Yes its the person committing the foul. Once armor is broken though there is a 2nd chance of rolling doubles. So that 16% is just first roll ?

The Av9 actually is a bit harder to figure... if you have 2 assists a 4+4 would break armor and get you kicked out. Which is what happened to me yesterday.

Yes, I've only done it for the first roll, to be honest I didn't realise it applied to the injury roll, I'll have to go look into it again.

[Lebe666]

The injury roll is the same I guess... since sneaky or not git gets punished with double roll. Armor roll means it was a success.