[Tactics] Testing Stats: which one is safer ?

[Lebe666]

Playing with the Samba Calculator to figure some chances. Some aren't as logical as they might seem.

Scenario 1: Your thrower (with pass) needs to do a long bomb at 4+.

1a) Do you move 2 GFI (with RR) in order to reduce the range to a 3+ pass ?
1b) Or just pass at 4+ ?

Scenario 2: Your running the ball with your blodge/fend player (no dodge later to get out). Your still in range of a 2 die block with 1 GFI. Oppo has no Re Roll and no Tackle player.

2a) Is it safer to move 2 GFI (no Re Roll) and get out of range ?
2b) Or try to survive the 2 die block (no RR) that only works on and needs a GFI ?

Scenario 3: Last turn and your out of RRs. Your thrower (w/pass) can either long bomb it to a catcher (catch skill) or you can try to make a short pass followed by a hand off and a GFI to score with other players.

3a) Long bomb 5+ (pass skill) ? Catch 2+ (w catch skill) [changed this to having a catch w/ skilled catcher]
3b) Or Pass 3+ (pass skill) / Catch 2+ / (hand off)Catch 2+ / GFI ? (No RRs)

Vote/Post what you think are the 3 best choices of each scenario and then check the answers below. The first posts avoid spoilers please !

ANSWERS: (don't peek)

1a) 2 GFI & 3+ pass = 82.30% success
1b) 4+ pass = 75% success

2a) 2 GFI no RR = 69.44%
2b) 25.46% of POW result in 2 die... or 74.54% of "success"

3a) 54.01% success
3b) 51.44% success chance

[Pottsy]

Damn, only got 1 out of 3 right.

Question 1 I wasn't sure how to factor in the reroll [I'm guessing you calculated the GFI as 150/216 +25/216*2]

Question 3 I forgot about the pass skill. Interesting how that can affect what tactic is more effective.

[Nikolai II]

In question two, have you taken account of the fact that if your opponent doesn't roll but does roll a , then he can force you to dodge with your fender?

In question three, have you included the drawback of "gfi=possible death" in the calculations?

And the differences in between where the ball will end up in case the opponent also has a turn left to score on?

And the possibility for an inaccurate pass to scatter back to the intended receiver?

[Valokiloren]

I got 2 out of 3, though to be honest, the fact that the pass skill in Example #3 is the game changer. Without it, I'd have full marks.

[Lebe666]

All good criticisms Dreamy/Nikolai... but the idea is just to play with the stats. More complicated scenarios wouldn't allow for a good poll...

Of course there are other issues in play. If your thrower or catcher is pretty far or guarded from the enemy... a 5+ pass might seem safer. If your having a lot of bad luck you might want to avoid multiple 2+ rolls instead of a single 5+ w/ RR.

I'm very superstitious with GFI... without RRs I rarely try.

[Purgatory]

I got 1 and 3 right, but I honestly think that 3 is unfair. I know that passing a 5+ roll with a re-roll is 55,555...%, but you're comparing passing a single Pass roll to making a chain of passes, catches and GFIs. Shouldn't you add the catch roll to 3a to at least make the comparison more relevant?

[Captain Thorrek]

What ones were the right answers? The way I've been rolling right now, I'd hate to be the blocker in this situation... since I know I usually get in these cases: , ... and with the possibility of a reroll? *shooka, shooka* , .

[Lebe666]

Originally Posted by Purgatory

I got 1 and 3 right, but I honestly think that 3 is unfair. I know that passing a 5+ roll with a re-roll is 55,555...%, but you're comparing passing a single Pass roll to making a chain of passes, catches and GFIs. Shouldn't you add the catch roll to 3a to at least make the comparison more relevant?

Darn... your right Purgatory ! Oppsss... Changed the way it was formulated and included the new % chance in invisible answers.


PS: Captain the answers are in "white" color at the end of the original post

[Tergara]

Curses only 2 out of 3 right! I'm the same way with gfi's, avoid them if at all possible.

[SorroW]

I got them all wrong..... Now I finally know why I suck at this game... :-)

/SorroW