This is my first post. Thought it would be better to ask this question in this thread rather than start another.
My WE Treeman rolled 2x6s on the first skill roll...is it still advised to take Block over the +1 ST?
2D(always against big guys) & 3D(against most BB players) blocks vs the
result on all blocks is a tuff decision.
Odds are that another 2x6 result for future skill ups won't happen again , or for that matter another 2x, period.
So do I make a ST7 Treeman or go the normal Block route?
Welcome!
That is a tough choice I think. Here are some numbers to help you decide, anybody please correct me if I am wrong:
A- Chances of turnover in a block with no assists against a ST3 piece
ST6 Tree with no Block (2D): 1 in 9 = 11.1 %
ST6 Tree with Block (2D): 1 in 36 = 2.7%
ST7 Tree with no Block (3D): 8 in 216 = 3.7%
B- Chances of a successful knock down (no turnover) in a block against ST3 opponents with no Block/Wrestle (also no Dodge) skill:
ST6 Tree with no Block (2D): 1 - 16/36 = 55%
ST6 Tree with Block (2D): 1 - 9/36 = 75%
ST7 Tree with no Block (3D): 1 - 64/216 = 70.3%
C- Chances of a successful knock down (no turnover) in a block against ST3 opponents with Block/Wrestle (but no Dodge) skill:
ST6 Tree with no Block (2D): 1 - 16/36 = 55%
ST6 Tree with Block (2D): 1 - 16/36 = 55%
ST7 Tree with no Block (3D): 1 - 64/216 = 70.3%
D- Chances of a successful knock down (no turnover) in a block against ST3 opponents with Dodge skill but no Block/Wrestle skill:
ST6 Tree with no Block (2D): 1 - 25/36 = 30.5%
ST6 Tree with Block (2D): 1 - 16/36 = 55%
ST7 Tree with no Block (3D): 1 - 125/216 = 42.1%
E - Chances of a successful knock down (no turnover) in a block against ST3 opponents with Block/Wrestle AND Dodge skill:
ST6 Tree with no Block (2D): 1 - 25/36 = 30.5%
ST6 Tree with Block (2D): 1 - 25/36 = 30.5%
ST7 Tree with no Block (3D): 1 - 125/216 = 42.1% (3D is the poor man´s Tackle)
F- Chances for the Tree to go down when opponent blocks at 1D
Tree with no Block: 3/6 = 50% (includes both down turnovers). You will see this one a lot, specially at the end of the turn. A both down turnover is good for your opponent as the tree has some... difficulties to stand up, usually.
Tree with Block : 2/6 = 33.3%
G- Chances for the Tree to go down when opponent blocks at -2D
Tree with no Block: 9/36 = 25% (includes both down turnovers). Also this one is not that rare, and utterly annoying when your opponent pulls it off.
Tree with Block : 4/36 = 11.1%
H- Chances for the Tree to go down when opponent blocks at 2D
Tree with no Block: 1 - 9/36 = 75% (includes both down turnovers)
Tree with Block : 1 - 16/36 = 55.5%
Note how similar the chances are for a successful knockdown with 1D on a ST7 (no Block) and a 2D on a ST6 (with Block). 50% and 55.5% respectively.
In my mind these figures suggest a Tree with Block may be more efficient at his job than a ST7. The only aspect where a ST7 tree stands out compared to a ST6 / Block one is in knocking down ST3 pieces with Block or Wrestle skill (or Blodge/Wrodge ones), and that is because of the 3D.
Now the above assumes you are not giving extra assists to your ST6 Tree in general, because if you can afford them at key moments then the comparison is over, ST6/Block all the way.
It also assumes that your ST7 Tree will always block at 3D against ST3, which you and me know wont be the case as often times you will be marked by more than just one piece. Etc, etc.
Plus a ST7 with no block Tree is no more effective than a ST6 with no block one when hitting ST4 or higher pieces (2D). Unless you can afford to give the ST7 Tree 2 assists for a 3D against ST4, a ST6 / Block Tree would be superior in these cases.
So if you are in a league where your opponents have tons of ST3 pieces with Block/Wrestle or Blodge and/or not many ST4 and above or not too much Guard (i.e. most agility races and hybrids, Norse, Necro, Humans, Amazons etc) then that ST7 may be attractive. Just remember that in order to really "squeeze" the ST7 value you need to get those blocks to be 3D. Otherwise (say lots of high ST bash like Khemri, Chaos, Nurgle, Orcs, possibly Undead etc where 3D will be limited) is probably a clear win for the ST6 / Block Tree.
In any event you have 3 more points to consider:
1 - A ST7 Tree will require more material committed by your opponent to bring it down, i.e. at least one more piece or Guard required on average than a ST6 Tree (unless in your league you have lots of Horned Minotaurs or Blood Thirsters). This can be handy in itself as it forces your opponent to leave other areas of the pitch more exposed for you to move around. Usually a block on a ST7 will have to be done by your opponent ST5 Big Guys for a 2D, which for the most part have no Block and thus only have a 55% of knocking the Tree down without Turnover, and being a loner at that.
Or it can make your opponent to decide to ignore your Tree altogether, helping the Tree to be blocked less often and become a cornerstone of your position.
Both scenarios are good for you, and these are probably the most serious, albeit "non quantifiable", advantages of the ST7 Tree.
2 - If this is your first skill pick, then it is also true that a double roll skill up comes more often than a 6+6, so from that point of view you can take a gamble and go for the ST7 in the hope of a future double roll.
3 - Some coaches also prefer to take Jump Up instead of Block. That skill is also really good as it makes sure your tree will always be in the way no matter what... except if the Tree is fouled or stunned etc. Also, remember standing up counts as an action and therefore one more opportunity for the Tree to root.
Neither ST7, Block nor Jump Up can help with roots so take with a pinch of salt. And this is where Pro may be an interesting alternative in a double roll.