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General 1/2D blocks (with Wrestle)

Discussion in 'League and Team Development Tactics' started by kiih, Mar 24, 2010.

  1. kiih

    kiih New Member

    Messages:
    6
    Hiya, first time poster here.

    I was looking at Coaches tips on Gutter Runners, and like quite a few people seem to suggest, Coach recommends getting Wrestle on them. I've played Blood Bowl mostly before Wrestle got added to the skill list (LRB4, maybe?). Those days, Block was the be-all-end-all skill and I've had to make myself believe Wrestle might in fact be a better skill. Now I'm getting there and I realized how useful a player that can get almost anywhere on the field and throw a 2D against block (also known as 1/2 die block) against anything except Big Guys and Mummies with a pretty good chance of knocking him over (and knocking the ball away from him) AND not turning over. And all this without committing a lot of players to the task, just the one GR.

    Of course I use assists whenever I can and I very rarely make even 1 die blocks, but still the idea of not having to over-commit players combined with a nice chance of putting the opponent (and ball) down seems great.

    Here are the actual questions, though I'm also interested on any insight on Wrestle on GRs:

    1) What are the odds of getting a player down on a 1/2D block if I have Wrestle and the opponent is unskilled (or has Block, same difference)?

    2) What are the odds of turning over? (I think I know this, it's ~30%)

    3) What are the odds of me knocking the opponent down and remaining standing? (I'm guessing it's 11%)

    4) What are the odds if I DON'T have Wrestle and the opponent is unskilled?

    BONUS) What do these come out to if I have a Team Reroll available?


    I've found quite a few blocking statistic tables, but none that include 1/2D blocks, and that's why I'm asking.

    As an aside, I'm just now getting comfortable with the idea of throwing 1D or 1/2D blocks. I'm a very probability-oriented person, and I just haven't realized how good the probabilities actually are. I used to either go for a 2D block or not block at all, but I'm beginning to see the light now.

    EDIT: Addendum to the questions above: assume the opponent picks Pushed rather than Both Down, if available
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2010
  2. Coach

    Coach Administrator Head Coach

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  3. Hasdrubal

    Hasdrubal New Member

    Messages:
    28
    On a 1/2 die block, assuming the attacker has Wrestle and the defender doesn't have Dodge, you have
    - 31% chance of turnover (occurrence of a skull picked by the defender)
    - 44% chance of pushing the defender back (occurrence of a push picked by the defender)
    - 25% chance of sacking the defender (split between 11% of using Wrestle and 14% of attacker standing)

    -> the odds are against you if you only have Wrestle, and even worsen if the defender has Dodge (11% of sacking the defender)

    Assuming you have a re-roll available and assuming you use it if you don't sack the defender on the first roll, the odds of success are much better but the risk of turnover is still high:
    - 23% chance of turnover
    - 33% chance of pushing the defender back
    - 44% chance of sacking the defender

    If you go for a less risky play and re-roll only in case of turnover, the odds of success are as follow:
    - 9% chance of turnover
    - 58% chance of pushing the defender back
    - 33% chance of sacking the defender

    So to answer your questions:
    1) 25% - bonus: 33% or 44% depending on how risk-adverse you are
    2) 31% - bonus: 9% or 23% depending on how risk-adverse you are
    3) 11% (included in the 25% mentioned above)
    4) 25% success assuming you don't mind the turnover on "both down" result (otherwise 11%), 56% total chance of turnover (including "both down" results)- bonus: 14% to 21% depending on how risk-adverse you are and a 11% chance of sacking the ball carrier on the initial roll

    Conclusion: if you don't have Wrestle and the opposing player doesn't have Dodge, a 1/2 dice block against a ball carrier is twice as likely to cause a turnover (31%) than succeed (17% chance of sacking the ball carrier and the GR stays up) is you use a RR to prevent the turnover. A "high risk, high reward" style results in only 4 additional points of success (21% chance of sacking the ball carrier and staying up) against 9 additional points of failure (49% chance of turnover) for a total 2.5 risk of failure.
     
  4. kiih

    kiih New Member

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    6
    Oh, I didn't realize that the Blocking Odds article had a second page (btw it's not the first time I missed the second page, maybe a "Continue to next page" -link at the end of the page would be more difficult to miss).

    Anyway, the article's table didn't answer all of my questions, so big thanks to Hasdrubal, that was a very helpful and concise post!

    Also thanks to Coach, there's a ton of valuable information on your site! I'm looking forward to your cage-breaking article, as well as any other articles you may be planning on doing.
     
  5. Metalsvinet

    Metalsvinet New Member

    Messages:
    27
    That sounds pretty scary: If a gutter has wrestle and stripball and a spare reroll then a 1/2 die block against a dude without dodge and surehands has only 9% chance of turnover and 91% chance of succes. Thats scary, hope the scaven coach in my league does not read this! :eek:
     
  6. Coach

    Coach Administrator Head Coach

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    I started doing that on the newer ones, need to update the older multipage ones to make it more obvious.
     
  7. sunnyside

    sunnyside Member

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    94
    Well, the gutter runner in question still has to be able to get at your guy. But the key thing is that yes, leaving your ball carrier exposed to a blitz is risky.

    However a little caging can make a big difference, as can sure hands.

    Actually that's my biggest problem with strip ball. It's entirely dependent on your opponents ball carrier not having a skill that a number of teams tart with, and that is a pretty common first or second skill on a ball carrier.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2010
  8. Hasdrubal

    Hasdrubal New Member

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    28
    Strip Ball's impact decreases with Sure Hands, however I believe it is still useful because it dictates who will be the ball carrier on the opposing team. which can make the opposing team moves quite predictable.

    Wrestle is also very good for Underworld teams: give it to a Goblin on a double, and you have a 2 Heads/Horns/Wrestle goblin that dodges into cages on 2+ with a built-in re-roll, then has 75% chance of sacking a non-Doge ball carrier with only 8% chance of turnover on the blitz. If the ball carrier has Dodge then the goblin is still 55% likely to succeed with a RR, and has only 11% chance of turnover. That's scary.
     
  9. kiih

    kiih New Member

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    6
    I think the key element here is the fact that not all coaches take into consideration that the GRs ST2 blitz is a real threat (I sure wouldn't have earlier, I'm pretty old-school that way). And even if he does see it as a threat, it's really difficult to defend against a player that can cover half the field -- say in a situation where I kick deep and the other team is a slow, non-throwing team.

    With the risk of repeating myself, I must say the probabilities really opened my eyes.
     
  10. Marlow

    Marlow Member

    Messages:
    60
    As a follow on to this I was working out odds of dodging into a cage and sacking the ball. Assuming the Ball carrier has Block but not dodge

    Gutter Runner (or similar) with Wrestle/Dodge (Make 5+ Dodge & 1/2 Dice Block with TRR)
    Has 18.13% sacking the ball, 49.63% of turnover (most of which is the dodge).
    If you re-roll pushes it goes up to 24.3% to sack the ball but T.O. rises to 57.18%.

    Other Players chances of sacking the cage -
    A Goblin (Wrestle, TRR [Skulls only] has a 29% chance of getting the ball free with only a 19.41% of Turnover.
    A Wardancer (3+ Leap, 1 Dice Block, TRR [Failed Leap/defender not down]) has 44.44% of getting the ball free with 22.22% of Turnover.
    An Elf w/ Leap, Wrestle (3+ Leap, 1 Dice Block, TRR [Failed Leap/defender not down]) has 61.11% of getting the ball free with 16.67% of Turnover.
    A Troll with Break Tackle (no re-rolls used due to Loner) has a 27.78% of getting the ball free with a massive 55.56% of Turnover.
    A Gutter Runner w/ Leap, Wrestle (3+ Leap, 1/2 Dice Block, TRR (Skulls/failed leap) has 27.31% of getting the ball free with 24.13% of Turnover.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2010