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Tactics Dauntless and re-rolls

Discussion in 'League and Team Development Tactics' started by Purgatory, May 15, 2011.

  1. Purgatory

    Purgatory Member

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    This situation came up in my latest league game, and though we discussed it a bit, my friends and I were unable to decide if my play was correct or not.

    A Chaos team has built the ball up into a side cage, and I Leap into it with my Wood Elf Catcher with Wrestle, Dauntless, Tackle, Leap. I need to get him down, since he is way too close to my End Zone for comfort, it's late in the game and though I'm up 1-0, there are many elves in the CAS and KO boxes. His ball carrier has Block, Sure Hands, +AG. I fail the 2+ Dauntless roll...

    Now, the question here is, which is best - to use a re-roll to get the 2D block (my opponent picks the result, naturally), or save the re-roll for the coming 3D block?

    In reality, I used the re-roll, still failed the Dauntless roll (go figure), but rolled three arrows on the block, and proceeded to score 2-0 a couple of turns later, so all is well. I still can't make up my mind on what's the best play, and with my S2 Catcher Leaping into cages ever so often, the information might be useful in future matches.
     
  2. Chaosquo

    Chaosquo New Member

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    If my math doesnt fail me:

    If you choose to reroll the dauntless roll, you have a 5/6 chance of succeeding and then you need no :skull: on a 2D against, so 5/6*5/6, or failing the dauntless again (1/6) and having to roll a 3D against, so 5/6*5/6*5/6, so its a 67.5% chance of success.

    If you just go for the 3D against with reroll, then its (5/6)^3+(1-(5/6)^3)*(5/6)^3=82% chance of success.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2011
  3. Purgatory

    Purgatory Member

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    Thanks a lot for that, the info may come in handy in the future :)
     
  4. Coach

    Coach Administrator Head Coach

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    Just ran this through the Blood Bowl Probability Calculator from the Android Market.

    2+ with a 2 dice against avoiding a :skull: is 57.9% without a rerolls

    Three dice against avoiding a :skull: is also 57.9% (both are essentially you rolling 3 dice on a 2+

    With a reroll it is indeed 82.3% as Chaosquo said

    I'm no expert on probability but if this is correct then you don't reroll the Dauntless as it is the same odds as doing a three dice against without a reroll. That also leaves you the reroll safety net, or may in fact save the reroll for something else.
     
  5. Purgatory

    Purgatory Member

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    Yeah, I think part of the reason I burned the re-roll was that I was very focused on calculating the probability for successfully knocking the ball loose on a 2D against block, and also that I think it was rather late in the turn (I recall being stressed anyway). I hope to not make the same mistake in the future.