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Tactics Niggling Injuries

Discussion in 'League and Team Development Tactics' started by Snap Wilson, Mar 1, 2015.

  1. Snap Wilson

    Snap Wilson Member

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    We had this discussion a bit in the Necromantic - Looking For A Little Advice thread and I just saw people advocating cutting a Level 5 Wardancer over a Niggling Injury in the "Should I Cut This Guy?" thread.

    So let's take a look at the main reasons you would be cutting a player with an NI, which is the increased chance of sustaining a KO or a Casualty, therefore taking your player out of the current drive at least. We'll start with the assumption that your player is receiving a 2D block against them at the various starting armor values, than with one of Block/Wrestle OR Dodge (which we'll shorthand to B/D) than with Blodge or Wrodge (which we'll shorthand to B+D).

    The first number is the percentage chance of KO or greater without a Niggling injury, the second number is the percentage chance with a Niggling Injury, and the third number is the difference between them. Hopefully this doesn't look terrible.

    AV 5 (Stunty) -- 31.6% -- 39.1% -- +7.5%
    AV 5 (B/D, Stunty) -- 23.4% -- 29.0% -- +5.6%
    AV 5 (B+D, Stunty) -- 12.9% -- 15.9% -- +3.1%
    AV 6 (Stunty) -- 25.5% -- 31.6% -- +6.1%
    AV 6 (B/D, Stunty) -- 13.5% -- 18.9% -- +4.5%
    AV 6 (B+D, Stunty) -- 10.4% -- 12.9% -- +2.5%
    AV 7 (Stunty) -- 18.2% -- 22.6% -- +4.3%
    AV 7 (B/D, Stunty) -- 13.5% -- 16.7% -- +3.2%
    AV 7 (B+D, Stunty) -- 7.4% -- 9.2% -- +1.8%
    AV 7 -- 13.0% -- 18.2% -- +5.2%
    AV 7 (B /D) -- 9.6% -- 13.5% -- +3.9%
    AV 7 (B+D) -- 5.3% -- 7.4% -- +2.1%
    AV8 -- 8.7% -- 12.2% -- +3.5%
    AV8 (B/D) -- 6.4% -- 9.0% -- +2.6%
    AV8 (B+D) -- 3.5% -- 5.0% -- +1.4%
    AV9 -- 5.2% -- 7.3% -- +2.1%
    AV9 (B/D) -- 3.9% -- 5.4% -- +1.5%
    AV9 (B+D) -- 2.1% -- 3.0% -- +0.8%
    AV10 -- 1.1% -- 1.5% -- +0.4%

    For AV5 and AV6, I included the deficit from Stunty, and for AV7 I calculated with and without Stunty. Also note that the Stunty players operate with Dodge most of the time, unless the player hitting them has Tackle (and Snotlings face more three die blocks than two, but anyway...). I would have included the advantage from Thick Skull, but honestly, I think that the difference in percentage is already low enough.

    The point of these numbers is that I often see coaches drop a skilled player over a single Niggle when the actual difference doesn't really matter all that much, and it's good to know the actual impact of an NI before you make that decision.

    When you're considering dropping someone for a Niggling Injury, have a look at this chart. What's the difference in the player you were willing to keep without the NI versus the player you're considering dropping with the NI? Think about the rookie player you're replacing him with and the opportunity cost of not having the skills he's accrued in the immediate future.

    Looking at these numbers, my rule of thumb would be: Obviously replace rookie linos all the time (the players you would get for free as journeymen) and rookie positionals if you can afford to replace them right away (otherwise keep until you can). I would replace skilled Snotlings and Halflings as well (unless they had Block) and any skilled AV7 player that didn't have Block/Wrestle or Dodge. I would keep all other skilled players, or at least think really hard before letting them go.

    But your mileage may vary, of course. These aren't hard and fast rules, and there may be other considerations that might impact your thinking. Just give it some thought and know the numbers before you make your decision.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2015
  2. Tjorne

    Tjorne Member

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    Thank you:powdodge:

    Nice table.

    So, if I read this corretly, the Zombie example would be: keeping is 9% pitch removal (AV 8 with block and Niggle), firing is 8.7% pitch removal (no skills, no Niggle) right away. Of course the new player will eventually get Block and the existing player can sometimes also use his skill offensively, but these are the raw numbers for defense. Quite close, I have to admit. I'd still say replace if it weren't for the additional Tackle in question, but nice to see (at least the computable part of) the probabilities.
     
  3. Netsmurf

    Netsmurf Well-Known Member

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    The only Niggled player I would ever consider keeping would be one with blodge or stat increases, that I really need. Always asume the worst possible senario when playing BB and a niggle is just an invitation to the great hunt for SPP:powdodge:
     
  4. JimmyFantastic

    JimmyFantastic Member

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    Yeah I have only kept two niggled players ever. One was a legend Clawpomber and the other is a +ST Guard CDB in a league where I have entered mid seasons and way behind in team development. I think I will replace the CDB as soon as I can.
     
  5. crimsonsun

    crimsonsun Well-Known Member

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    You cannot combine the results for Wrodge with Blodge because Wrodge can be countered, also while this data is useful in isolation its pointless without adding in the various options for the attacker. For example a Niggled player with Wrodge and Av7 being blitzed by a block, Tackle, Juggernaut, Might Blow, PO player on a 2die block, then add in Pro and frenzy.

    It makes Niggles a serious liability in leagues with developed teams, also you take no account of fouls with Dirty player utilising assists to bring the Av down to 5 your removing a player from the field more often than they will remain.
     
  6. tys123

    tys123 Courier Staff

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    It doesn't matter what skills they have or their armour.

    In all cases the chance of a pitch removal increases by 40% assuming no MB , PO , DP or Stunty.

    ie it goes from 1% to 1.4% or 10% to 14%.

    If they are getting removed from the pitch 5 times each season before the niggle it will go up to 7 times with it.

    IMO that is an unacceptable amount unless the player has great skills.
     
  7. Nikolai II

    Nikolai II Super Moderator Moderator

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    One point about niggles is that with AV 7 a niggle and an AV break are equally bad when it comes to depitching more frequently. Niggles just make more of those into casualties, which are generally harder to recover from than KO:s.
     
  8. Snap Wilson

    Snap Wilson Member

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    It doesn't really matter. If Wrodge is in a position to be countered, just go to the Block/Dodge row. The stats are just figured so that the first row for each AV means three faces of the dice can take you down, the second row is two faces of the dice, and the bottom is one face of the dice.
     
  9. Snap Wilson

    Snap Wilson Member

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    Of course it does. Very rarely do you roll for injury without making an armor break first, and the times that you roll for Armor without someone hitting you mostly self-inflicted. Granted, if you are on the ground, the NI makes you a more attractive fouling target.
     
  10. Snap Wilson

    Snap Wilson Member

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    The percentage in Casualty increase is even less than the percentage in KO increase, and less germane, since the end result is likely that the player is more likely to die or sustain an injury that merits cutting him. Again, you're just weighing this against cutting him right away. The only difference is that you get more games with that skilled player.
     
  11. TravelScrabble

    TravelScrabble Well-Known Member

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    Yes, though one should bear in mind that stuns are often not great either, particularly on catchers who might get knocked down and want to get right back up and recover the ball for a TD.
     
  12. crimsonsun

    crimsonsun Well-Known Member

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    Also extra games with a skilled player that spends more time in the dugouts though injury than on the pitch while stealing spp from its replacement is a dubious player at best unless its a positional with important stat boosts.

    In a ongoing league environment I'd say 75%+ teams have dedicated hunters/killers and many feature effective damage dealing blockers as well, when such a coach see a niggled player (I know because I am one) I think wonderful free SPP and a prime target. This does not mean I will hunt that player down at all costs leaving myself exposed or to be baited but instead if such a player leaves itself exposed I will target it because I know I'm more likely to remove it and doing so will give me an edge for the rest of the drive.

    Seriously me Killers see Av7 Wrodgers as easily removable priority targets so once you start putting niggles in from of me those players will need a lot of luck to remain on the pitch by the matches end more often than not. In fact if you leave any low armour high spp exposed I will punish you to the best of my ability but niggles get extra attention as they allow good odds of spp for minimal effort.

    Generally Niggles get fired from my teams more than any other Perm injury except Strength out of my 3 current on going league teams I have a single Niggled player that also happens to have Regenerate and a Strength increase though is a ball carrier so stays out of the action where I can help it.
     
  13. Boffa

    Boffa Active Member

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    Yeah being on the other side having a couple niggled elf wrodgers I tremble whenever I see those jugs mb tackle po killers.. I kept the niggled lino because he had guard (going now -av also) and I am keeping the niggled catcher because he is my only skilled catcher left with mv 9 and wrodge tackle I need him but its far from ideal and if you can avoid it.. don't carry niggles ;)
     
  14. cjblackburn

    cjblackburn Well-Known Member

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    It is always good to see the numbers. I think when looking at the numbers everyone will have to draw their own conclusions. I imagine length of league would be the most important factor. In the OCC the fact that the niggled player is taking experience from the replacement becomes much more important as in theory there is no limit on the team other than your commitment to playing it. However in the TT league where I live it's start as a rookie team and then ten matches and the team is done in that league.

    The calculation is very different in the two leagues. Would I keep a niggled Orc Blitzer with Guard in the OCC? No. In the WB Premiership? Yes.

    The piece does does start by looking at a level 5 player which suggests perpetual league. But with the wide variety of league structures in BB there is a discussion to be had on where you draw the line.
     
  15. Everblue

    Everblue Active Member

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    Tys is entirely correct that you ignore the armour - a niggle doesn't change your armour level, so you will take exactly as many armour breaks as before. Thus it's a constant that can be ignored if you are attempting to work out the consequences of a niggling injury.

    I go further and say that in a long league you should ignore skills - since the chances of being knocked over are exactly the same as before and you'd hope that your replacement would get block or dodge eventually too.

    Your table also quotes absolute percentage increases, which should be viewed in the context of the relative increases. I work out almost all your figures to show a 24% increase. Take the percentage increase on the right and divide it by the pre-niggle figure on the left - you get 24% almost every time. So every block you take you have a 24% greater chance of leaving the pitch thanks to your niggle.

    The 40% figure Tys quotes is casualties - a block or foul against a niggled player is 40% more likely to end up in a casualty than a block or foul against an un-niggled player.

    The way that your table is helpful is comparing depitching a skilled but niggled player against an unskilled but clean player. In that case I think cjblackburn above covered it when he talks about the length of the league.
     
  16. tys123

    tys123 Courier Staff

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    Actually the 40% is the chance of a KO or better.

    ie 7+ on 2d6 is 21/36
    8+ is 15/36
    so the %age increase is 21/15 = 1.4 .
    So a 40% increase in the chance of a KO or worse.

    Chance of an injury is 9+ = 10/36
    without a niggle is 10+ = 6/36
    % increase is 10/6 = 1.6666666 .
    So a 66% increase in the chance of a injury
     
  17. Everblue

    Everblue Active Member

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    Well why does his table come out at 24% then?

    #confused
     
  18. tys123

    tys123 Courier Staff

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    That would be the Stunty.
    One of Stunty , DP or MB changes the chance of a KO to 6+ instead of 7+ and that is a smaller %age increase. 24% instead of 40%
    The effect of a niggle on a stunty player is actally less than on a normal player.
    Similarly it is worse on a player with Thick Skull.
     
  19. Snap Wilson

    Snap Wilson Member

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    Including AV? Because that wouldn't really make sense.

    And yes, the overall increase on the Injury roll is 40%, but it only matters if you actually make it to the injury roll. AV 8 players will make fewer injury rolls than AV 7 players. Players with Block and/or Dodge will make fewer injury rolls than players without them. Players with higher AG or Dodge will make fewer injury rolls per Dodge attempt than players. Players who play back will make fewer injury rolls than players on the line of scrimmage. If you're ignoring these facts in the process of figuring out how much a Niggling Injury impacts you.

    And as for your NI player stealing SPPs, keep in mind, the rookie player you want to replace him with is obtaining those SPPs in order to be the sort of player you want to replace him with. This is akin to trading a way a five-pound note for the opportunity to get a shinier five-pound note.
     
  20. akirilus

    akirilus Well-Known Member

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    Stuns can be crucial - I know people want to see ringing bells and red crosses over their opponents (and don't get me wrong, depitching is nice), but I consider a turn where I stunned 3 opposing players to be awesome. Those players are now essentially out of position for 2 turns - one turn they do absolutely nothing, and the second turn they have to stand up, which if we are talking about a base MA 6 player literally halves their movement range. Same goes for that annoying <insert elf with agi 5 and ball hunting skills> - when s/he is stunned, that's 2 turns where they can't effectively threaten your ball carrier. Stuns are awesome!

    That having been said, niggling injuries don't affect stuns one iota - by the time a niggle is taking effect, you are already at least stunned. I liked seeing the numbers - my philosophy is that niggled players with a very useful set of skills, or those who are not routinely exposed to hits, get to stay. Niggled rookies get fired on the spot - but any rookie with an SI gets fired on the spot. Dedicated STR 3 LoS players also get fired if they have a niggle - rationale is that on the LoS, I am actually ok with them being stunned from the opening round of blocks - what I DON'T want is for them to be insta-depitched. As a result, unless my dedicated hit-taker has exceptional skills, if he is niggled or AV-broken, he gets fired (broken necks and MA busts get to stay, except when the MA bust takes him below MA 3). But would I keep a niggled Blodge/Side Step/Tackle/Fend elf blitzer, or a niggled Agi 5 thrower? In a heartbeat - in fact, I would be glad it was a niggle and not an MA-break.

    P.S. One way to look at a niggling injury is that it turns the recipient into a Stunty player, except they get no "Stunty protection" where an injury roll of 9 is automatically BH - they still access the full "menu" of injuries on a 9.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2015