1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Match Report Race winning stats

Discussion in 'League and Team Development Tactics' started by mamutas, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. mamutas

    mamutas Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,705
    Location:
    Texas, USA
    Steam Username:
    mamutas
    Cyanide Username:
    mamutas
    Country Flag:
  2. TravelScrabble

    TravelScrabble Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    7,361
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada (UTC -4)
    Steam Username:
    travelscrabble
    Cyanide Username:
    travelscrabble
    Country Flag:
    Cool to have them all in one place
     
  3. Valcurdra

    Valcurdra Active Member

    Messages:
    268
    Country Flag:
    Yeah was an interesting read, shows some pretty good balance overall.

    Also whilst the same teams are top and bottom most of the time, there are some surprising results that show good players can win with unusual teams
     
  4. CariadocThorne

    CariadocThorne Member

    Messages:
    67
    Location:
    Kent, England
    Country Flag:
    Am I reading those right? I'm assuming the red mark at the centre of each line shows the average win percentage, while the length of the line is an indicator of how much players varied from the average.
     
  5. TravelScrabble

    TravelScrabble Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    7,361
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada (UTC -4)
    Steam Username:
    travelscrabble
    Cyanide Username:
    travelscrabble
    Country Flag:
    I believe the length of the line is the confidence interval. Not being a statistician myself I'm not best placed to explain it but essentially the red mark is the mean win percentage in the data we have and the true average should lie somewhere along the line, not necessarily at the red mark. The more data the more confidence we can have in the placement of the red line so hence a shorter line. Basically for out purposes the longer the line the fewer games we have for that race and vice versa, which is why the less popular races all have longer lines, and why FUMBBL A with 175k games played has shorter lines than all the others.
     
  6. tys123

    tys123 Courier Staff

    Messages:
    3,129
    Country Flag:
    Yes. The longer the line the less certain it is.

    It is clear Cyanide didn't look at those stats though.
    Humans are just better than Orcs in the 3 leagues with the most data yet they decided to make the humans better and the orcs worse.
     
  7. CariadocThorne

    CariadocThorne Member

    Messages:
    67
    Location:
    Kent, England
    Country Flag:
    Ok, thanks for explaining, that makes more sense now.

    I guess that shows the power of perception. People see Orcs as a strong team so they get the nerf, while Humans are viewed as unattractive I guess (I know I've certainly never heard any serious suggestion that they were especially weak) so they get a buff to boost their attractiveness.

    Although if they were going to nerf strong teams, I'm surprised they went for Orcs. I would have expected high TV Chaos kill-teams to be the target personally.
     
  8. mamutas

    mamutas Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,705
    Location:
    Texas, USA
    Steam Username:
    mamutas
    Cyanide Username:
    mamutas
    Country Flag:
    It is much easier to adjust the starting specs than to figure out how to bring down high TV race without affecting the other races or the same race at lower TVs. It only could be done via restrictions of some skills, but if you can't restrict them on high TV only. This is a flow in the original rules, that does not adjust to the player progression based on their TV. I wonder if the big brains behind the LRB are thinking about it...
     
  9. TravelScrabble

    TravelScrabble Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    7,361
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada (UTC -4)
    Steam Username:
    travelscrabble
    Cyanide Username:
    travelscrabble
    Country Flag:
    Also you'll notice that Chaos are in no way the most dominant team in any format - admittedly that's in part because rookie Chaos are so bad but still...Chaos are really good at high TV but they're not head and shoulders above the rest. The only team that's consistently at the top is woodies.

    But I don't thin the goal was to balance the teams, I think it was to try to make Orcs and humans equal to each other at low TV since they're the flagship races in a way, maybe the most likely for new players to pick up and play against each other? Makes a bit more sense of what they were doing anyway, even though its still wrong headed.
     
  10. CariadocThorne

    CariadocThorne Member

    Messages:
    67
    Location:
    Kent, England
    Country Flag:
    Sorry, I meant if they were looking at "percieved strength" or general scariness rather than actual win percentages. Throughout my general trawls through the various BB forums etc, Chaos are fairly consistent in being mentioned most often as the team people are most afraid of playing, since they are so renowned for killing or maiming a good chunk of your team, whether they win, lose, or draw. Orcs and dwarves both seem to come some way behind in fear factor, while woodies seem to be regarded more as an annoyance, because they might beat you by a 4 TD winning margin, but they don't cripple your team, and if luck is on your side you can still have fun crippling hippies while one runs off with the ball....
     
  11. TravelScrabble

    TravelScrabble Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    7,361
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada (UTC -4)
    Steam Username:
    travelscrabble
    Cyanide Username:
    travelscrabble
    Country Flag:
    Yeah that's true, I don't think they were catering to anyone, not the fans and not the interests of actual game balance, they were just arbitrarily making decisions they thought would be popular with new players. Don't think its working too well for them though.
     
  12. mamutas

    mamutas Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,705
    Location:
    Texas, USA
    Steam Username:
    mamutas
    Cyanide Username:
    mamutas
    Country Flag:
    If only there would be an alternative BB game that looks as good and follow the LRB to the letter... :rolleyes:
    FUMBBL is sort of such thing, but their look is certainly less appealing to wide public.
     
  13. Silfuin

    Silfuin Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,045
    Location:
    Italy - GMT +1
    Cyanide Username:
    Silfuin
    Country Flag:
    Not bought BB2 yet.
    I know I will need to but I'll wait until OCC or Big Crunch will transition.
    Can anyone explain me how the orcs were nerfed?
     
  14. notafunhater

    notafunhater Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,218
    Location:
    Utah, USA
    Cyanide Username:
    notafunhater
    Country Flag:
    Blitzer cost is 10k more in BB2. Don't count on the OCC going anytime soon, btw.
     
  15. mamutas

    mamutas Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,705
    Location:
    Texas, USA
    Steam Username:
    mamutas
    Cyanide Username:
    mamutas
    Country Flag:
    Yeah, I heard that some high people in OCC were very unhappy with BB2 and Cyanide's treatment, so there is grudge now.
    So, buy it now and join us in time for World Cup Qualifiers!

    Cheers!
     
  16. Jav

    Jav Active Member

    Messages:
    581
    Steam Username:
    Javelin
    Cyanide Username:
    javelin
    Country Flag:
  17. shirz

    shirz New Member

    Messages:
    2
    Country Flag:
    Does anyone have a link to these stats or have them saved somewhere? Or even any similar statistics? That whole forum is gone and I've been looking everywhere for them with no luck so far.
     
  18. tys123

    tys123 Courier Staff

    Messages:
    3,129
    Country Flag:
    You need to find Dode.
    Don't think he has ever been on this forum.
    Think he is still playing in the OCC so you may be able to find him there.
    Or maybe on Discord for the BB2 Ladder. Think he is an admin there.
     
  19. Borke

    Borke Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,329
    Location:
    Hamburg
    Cyanide Username:
    Borke
    Country Flag:
    I just spoke with Dode. He doesn't have easy access to the data any more, at least no better access than everyone else, because the data can actually be downloaded from GoblinSpy.
     
  20. shirz

    shirz New Member

    Messages:
    2
    Country Flag:
    Thank you guys for your responses. I just downloaded the goblinspy database and I'll see about looking through this.