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Tactics Which is better odds.

Discussion in 'General Blood Bowl News and Discussion' started by Azimov, Mar 1, 2013.

  1. Azimov

    Azimov Member

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    I was thinking about a potential situation where to score I either had to dodge and make 1 GFI, or avoid the dodge and make 2 GFI.
    On an Elf a normal dodge would be 2+ same as a GFI, so I was thinking it mostly an AGI 3 situation.
    Now AGI 3 means a 3+ to dodge, but if he had Dodge I make it 1/9 chance of failure instead of 1/6 for the extra GFI?

    So what I am wondering is if I had a team reroll available, would I be better off making the dodge with Dodge and a GFI with possible reroll, or trying for 2 GFI with a possible reroll?
     
  2. Rama Set

    Rama Set Member

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    According to straight probabilities the 2 GFIs are the most likely to succeed with a RR.
     
  3. danton

    danton Well-Known Member

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    You should check out Samba Action Calculator for questions like this, as it will save you a lot of time! I even made an iOS app that does the same thing! ;)

    Quick answer anyway is that 3+ dodge with Dodge skill and 2+ GFI with team rr comes out to 86% success rate.

    Two GFIs with team roll comes out to 92%, so the gfi option is the way to go.

    Edit nearly got that back to front lol
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2013
  4. Rama Set

    Rama Set Member

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    Two GFIs -without- a RR comes to 69%. It is 92.5% with a RR.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2013
  5. danton

    danton Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I know - was looking at the odds with no team reroll, which is why I got it back to front. Have amended above! :D
     
  6. Coach

    Coach Administrator Head Coach

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  7. Azimov

    Azimov Member

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    Thanks for the link, is very cool page.

    Seems I did manage to work out the odds in my head for failing 2 GFI with a reroll correctly as 16/216.
    Still the overall result was surprising, thought the potential chance to use two separate rerolls would have pushed it higher.
     
  8. Nikolai II

    Nikolai II Super Moderator Moderator

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    Then there's the question about what you want to do. For a scoring run you always want the easy road, but at other times you might want to conserve rerolls for later use.. depends upon how vital the move is..
     
  9. Murderholic

    Murderholic New Member

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    I think everyone has covered this well, from a math perspective, but one last thing to consider:

    What happens if you fail?

    If you fall, the ball scatters 1 square. If you fail the dodge, the ball could very well scatter to a square adjacent to the enemy, where as if you choke on the last GFI, well, at least the ball is physically close to the endzone even if you didn't score.
     
  10. Nikolai II

    Nikolai II Super Moderator Moderator

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    Unless it scatters off the pitch and gets thrown in anywhere.. ;)
     
  11. Kjelstad

    Kjelstad Active Member

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    I always take the "Where" will you fail into account. This is important if you want to win a game with vampires.