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Test #008: Elf 1 TurnTD

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Hello all to the eighth installment of Elf Take!  I’m your host Skip Tasteless and today we’re going to take another look at a one turn TD.  Let’s take a look at the challenge!

Phoenix Kings (High Elf) vs. Got Wood (Wood Elf)

During Match Week 6 at the Old World Football League, Hammertime’s Got Wood team (Wood Elves) has put up an early lead against Mardaed’s Phoenix Kings (High Elves). The game has been a nasty slugfest as both coaches have been ruthlessly targeting each other’s key players with fouls and blitzes. After a 4-turn score, Got Wood received a Blitz! kickoff event and has tallied up the score 2-0 on turn 8.

You’re Mardaed and are in control of the High Elves. You look in frustration as three of your knocked out players fail to wake up. Your MV9 catcher is also layed out with a niggling injury. You’re trying to stay calm. You put your Strong Arm Accurate thrower in the backfield and position your men into a one turn TD formation. The kick is off and a Quick Snap! event is rolled! Saving the blitz for the catcher, you position Blitzer #6 next to Wood Elf Lineman #5 in hopes of pushing him back into High Elf territory. You can feel the pressure of the game slipping away. It’s time for you to act! Score the TD and make this a game again!

Objective

Score a TD.

Rules
  • You only have 1 turn left, and you have just started it.
  • What’s the best chain of events to score the TD.  Who do you blitz?
Score the TD!

You can feel the pressure of the game slipping away. It’s time for you to act! Score the TD and make this a game again!

Thanks to Alessandro Francesconi for his batch image manipulation plugin for GIMP.  It helped in resizing FUMBBL icons.

 

Higher Resolution 2D image.  Can be enlarged. Score the TD!

Higher Resolution 2D image. Can be enlarged.
Score the TD!

Rosters

Phoenix Kings (High Elf)

#PositionMVSTRAGIAVSkills
1Thrower6348Pass, Safe Throw, Strong Arm, Accurate, Block,Sure Hands, Catch
2Catcher8347Catch, Dodge, Tackle
3Catcher8347Catch, Guard
6Blitzer7348Block, Mighty Blow, Tackle, Sidestep, Dodge, Fend
8Thrower6348Pass, Safe Throw 
13Lineman6348
14Lineman6348Dirty Player
16Lineman6348

Got Wood (Wood Elf)

#PositionMVSTRAGIAVSkills
1Wardancer8347Block, Dodge, Leap, Mighty Blow, Frenzy, Tackle 
4Lineman7447STR+, Block
5Lineman7347Dodge, Wrestle
6Lineman7347Kick
7Lineman7347Guard
8Lineman7347Dodge, Wrestle
9Lineman7347
10Catcher8247Catch, Dodge, Sprint, Wrestle
11Thrower7347Pass, Leader, Sure Hands, Safe Throw, Strong Arm, Accurate
12Treeman26110Mighty Blow, Loner, Stand Firm, Thick Skull, Guard, Grab, Block, Break Tackle
13Lineman7347

View Skip's Solution

Mardaed was able to score!  In the second half, the Phoenix Kings scored in 2 turns and were hell bent on winning the game through defense.  The Kings came close. The next 6 turns became a mad scramble for the ball with no one scoring.  Final Score 2-2.
The one turn TD is made with three 2D blocks, 2 2+ dodges (1 potential 2+ dodge if the third 2d block is a push), 1 blitz, (2 potential dodges if the blitz is a push, a 3+ dodge and a 2+ dodge) and 2 gfi’s.  The blitz poses an interesting problem.  Do you attack the skill-less lineman with 1 die or do you attack the Wrestle, Dodge Catcher with 2 dice?  In either case, if you end up with a push result, you are faced with a 3+ and 2+ dodge.  Feel free to discuss this below.

 

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14 Responses to Test #008: Elf 1 TurnTD

  1. D-Lyrium February 12, 2013 at 3:27 am #

    Hang on… the highest movement on the HE team is 8. Catcher #2 is 12 squares away from the end zone even if there were no Wood Elves in the way. So he’d need four GFI rolls even if that was allowed (without Sprint he only gets two). So he can’t possibly even reach the end zone in one turn.

    What am I missing? :/

    I guess this is why I suck at Blood Bowl. 😀

  2. Trolken February 12, 2013 at 4:53 pm #

    I find the solution, but I am curious of how were placed the players before “Quick Snap”. Because in my mind it was possible to have all the key player in place AND a player who can blitz without dodge.
    But with only 2 min to adapt…

    PS : I notice you use the french league’s logo Cabalvision (cabalvision.forumactif.com) there is a link between you ?

    And thanks for these very interesting challenges !

    • Skip Tasteless February 12, 2013 at 8:14 pm #

      Ha ha…

      I should probably take the logo off then… I didn’t realize it was actually used for a league. I thought it was a fabricated sponsor… just like Bloodweiser.

      The whole intent of moving the players up was to save the blitz for the ball carrier, so he could blitz the line to eliminate the 3+ 3+ and 2+ dodges.

      • Skip Tasteless February 12, 2013 at 9:17 pm #

        I just sent a message to Cabalvision League requesting permission to use logo. Hopefully they say yes.

        Back to my original comment. A good challenge would be 1.) Was the 1TTD even possible with 7 players.

        And 2.) In the event that a Quick Snap event is called during the kick-off, what’s the optimal position to then line your men up? Remember, everyone gets to move an extra space.

        • Trolken February 25, 2013 at 3:46 pm #

          I move no13 to F2
          I move no8 to D-1
          I blitz (2D) no8 with no3 (dodge 2+) from H2 and push no2 to E2 (no3 better than no6 to avoid Takle on dodge). No8 follows to bring his Guard.
          No6 dodge 2+ with Dodge to G2 (can be avoid but then no16 must pushpush with 2 dices instead of no14 with 3D and we hope a POW to a allow a catch2+ better than a 3+ with a push on no8
          Then no4 pushpush (3D) no2 to D3 or E3
          Then no1 pickup 2+, runs, pass 2+ and no2 catchs 3+ or 2+ (according to the condition of no12) with Catch.
          No2 dodge 2+, runs to no4 and dodge 3+, 3+, 2+ with 2 GFIs

  3. Ganabul February 26, 2013 at 5:18 pm #

    Interesting little one-turn puzzle. You should clearly blitz the catcher, since the Helf ball carrier has tackle, making the odds of a takedown significantly better than the straight 1d roll (against lineman 7 since he has guard but no other skills & is the best second target). What’s more, with 2d, you have a better chance of avoiding the end state (skull or both down, since the catcher doesn’t have block) and getting at least one push. Wrestle is irrelevant, since a both down result ends the TD run regardless – the catcher does not have block.

    • Skip Tasteless February 26, 2013 at 5:25 pm #

      Good job Ganabul. During the game Mardaed was running out of time and quickly targeted a skill-less lineman.

  4. Lingua-File September 3, 2013 at 6:06 am #

    #2 catcher has the only chance to score. He needs two pushes (as pointed out accidentally by D-Lyrum). Therefore the blitz needs to initiate the pushing of lineman#8 against catcher#2. The trick I see is the treeman with guard. By having an assist in F2 (lineman#13) as early as possible, it helps with the blocks and sets up the chain push on #2 much earlier.
    Blitz with Blitzer#6 (2D) from H2 (2+ dodge with dodge), then dodge to G3 (2+dodge with dodge) ending in G2 to set the chain push.
    As for the push, push lineman#8 into catcher#2 and chain push #2 up to E2.
    There should be a T formed with the catcher#2, lineman#13 and blitzer#6 with the opponent
    The next block comes from lineman#14 (2D on lineman#8) chaining catcher#2 up to either E3 or D3.
    The ball needs to get to Catcher #2 at the best possible time but considering that the Thrower#1 has accurate, pass and strong arm, you can pass off at any stage and still be a 2+pass.
    The important thing is to go to run catcher#2 to the sideline side of +1st lineman#4 as the other side has a tackler.
    Then it is 2 3+ dodges into the TD.
    Not sure what Samba says about that though

    • Skip Tasteless April 22, 2014 at 6:30 pm #

      Didn’t see your response earlier, you too have outskipped Skip 🙂

  5. PerplexingPrincess April 21, 2014 at 9:32 am #

    I think blitzing with #6 is a little better than blitzing with the ball carrier, but I might not have the ideal sequence for that; mine seems a little overcomplicated. I’m going to assume the pass is successful for the sake of simplifying the calculation.

    Sequence #1

    -#8 moves to H2
    -#13 moves to H-1
    -#6 blocks #5 (2D) -> push to H1 -> chain Treeman to G2 -> follow-up.
    -#16 dodges out and moves to F2
    -#3 blocks #5 (2D) -> push to G1 -> chain #8 to F1 -> chain #2 to E2.
    -#14 blocks #8 (2D) -> push to E2 -> chain #2 to E3.
    -#2 Blitzes: (dodge if necessary) move to J10, block #10 (2D) -> push to I12 or K12 -> follow-up, GFI (dodge if necessary), GFI (dodge if necessary), touchdown.

    27.77%, excluding the probability of the pass failing.

    Sequence #2

    -#6 Blitzes: Dodge to K2, J3, I3, H2, block #8 (2D) -> push to F1 -> chain #2 to E2-> no follow-up, dodge to G3, F2.
    -#8 moves to E1
    -#13 moves to E-1
    -#16 blocks #8 (3D) -> push to E2 -> chain #2 to E3.
    -#2 moves to A10 (dodge if necessary), dodge to A11, GFI and dodge to A12, GFI and dodge to A13, touchdown.

    30.39%, excluding the probability of the pass failing.

    • PerplexingPrincess April 21, 2014 at 3:59 pm #

      Actually, it’s 20.57% and 22.51%, respectively.

      I forgot that Dodge is optional; I assumed the other team would take the fall whenever it would screw up the chain.

      • Skip Tasteless April 22, 2014 at 5:00 pm #

        Knowing your gaming platform helps in competitive matches. The Cyanide version of game does not allow Dodge to be optional. Because of this, a dodge player on the line could give you some grief. In FUMBBL, Dodge is optional, and you can stop a chain sequence immediately on Defender Stumbles.

        Of course, in this case, it doesn’t matter, as Tackle (in Cyanide’s version) is not optional either!

    • Skip Tasteless April 22, 2014 at 6:09 pm #

      Sequence #1:
      Treeman has Stand Firm!

      Let’s check out Sequence #2:
      Blitzer -> Dodge(/w skill), block 2d(push), Dodge(/w skill) -> block 2d (4 success) -> dodge 3+ (/w skill), dodge 3+(/w skill), dodge 2+(/w skill), GFI, GFI

      (no ball handling, successful knockdown, no dodge for catcher from scrimmage)
      21.561% no reroll / 43.789% reroll

      (it actually goes up to 22.639% / 45.507% if Blitzer #6 avoids the first dodge by being moved away from Lineman#5 during Quick Start movement)

      This is looking nice! I’m thinking this is going to be better solution.

      I wanted to save the blitz, so let’s look at original solution. Blitzer #6 2d blocks #5 to H-1 moves up. Catcher #3 dodges to G2. Thrower #8 moves to F2. Lineman #13 chainpushes H-1 to G1 to F1 to E2. Lineman #14 chain pushes F1 to E2 to E3. We require 2 GFIs no matter what, so let’s add 2 GFI’s.

      We’re already at: 21.433% / 49.416%

      Let’s see what happens if we add:
      Scenario – If the catcher does not blitz, he goes through line –
      3+ dodge, 3+ dodge, 2+ dodge It drops to 14.554% / 35.318%

      Let’s see what happens if he blitzes 2d on catcher #10.
      Pow = 30.556% chance followed by running to end zone
      Push = 58.333% chance followed by 3+ Dodge(/w skill) + 2+ Dodge(/w skill) = 58.333% * 83.333% = 48.61%

      So (30.556% + 48.61%) * 21.433% (the probability of events before the blitzing) = 16.967% no reroll. The reroll calculation is more complicated and being skipped.

      I think it’s safe to say your solution is better!

      Just for giggles, let’s see what happens if I 1d blitz Lineman #13
      Pow = 33.33%
      Push = 33.33% chance followed by 3+ Dodge(/w skill) + 2+ Dodge(/w skill) = 33.333% * 83.333% = 27.77%

      So (33.3% + 27.77%) * 21.433% (the probability of events before the blitzing) = 13.09% no reroll.

      To recap….

      Your scenario: 21.561% / 43.789%
      My solution (no blitz): 14.554% / 35.318%
      My solution (2d blitz): 16.967% / ???
      My solution (1d blitz): 13.09% / ???

      Congrats! You’ve outskipped Skip!

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