Use the following table to see the odds of where an inaccurate scatter will result, in either the ball, or a thrown team mate landing. Useful for knowing where to aim a Throw Team Mate or a Hail Mary Pass. It is worth bearing these in mind when both selecting your skills and any tactical decisions you make during a game.
| Inaccurate Scatter Odds | ||||||
| 0.20% | 0.59% | 1.17% | 1.37% | 1.17% | 0.59% | 0.20% |
| 0.59% | 1.17% | 2.34% | 2.34% | 2.34% | 1.17% | 0.59% |
| 1.17% | 2.34% | 5.27% | 5.27% | 5.27% | 2.34% | 1.17% |
| 1.37% | 2.34% | 5.27% | 4.69% | 5.27% | 2.34% | 1.37% |
| 1.17% | 2.34% | 5.27% | 5.27% | 5.27% | 2.34% | 1.17% |
| 0.59% | 1.17% | 2.34% | 2.34% | 2.34% | 1.17% | 0.59% |
| 0.20% | 0.59% | 1.17% | 1.37% | 1.17% | 0.59% | 0.20% |
So the total percentage changes of where the ball will land in relation to your target square are as follows:
- on target: 4.69%
- one: 42.16%
- two: 32.81%
- three: 20.31%
I guess Diving Catch would be handy as well, it gives you almost a 50% chance of getting a Catch Roll on Inaccurate passes.
The cumulative odds for 2 squares away is mixed up with 3 squares away.
IMHO it’s more probable that the ball lands 2 squares away than 3. You can get the correct result by adding together all little sums for each distance. The odds for 2 squares should be summarized as
1.17% + 2.34% + 2.34% + 2.34% + 1.17%
2.34% + 2.34%
2.34% centre + 2.34%
2.34% + 2.34%
1.17% + 2.34% + 2.34% + 2.34% + 1.17%
totalling 32,8%
Through a quick bit of mental maths you can show that the total for three squares away must be lower than 30%:
In order to end three squares from starting point, the ball must scatter away from the center all three occasions. This makes it easy to work with:
The first scatter is clearly irrelevant.
However the second scatter takes place from one of eight possible locations. In order to continue moving outwards there are four locations (the corners) where 5/8 possible scatters work, and four locations where only 3/8 scatters work.
That gives you a total of 20+12 possible ‘paths’ that result (in the first two scatters) in the ball being two squares away from target.
The final scatter there are again only four locations from which it may scatter 5/8 to continue its path, and there are now 32-4 locations from which it may scatter 3/8 to continue outwards.
Hence from the total number of possible paths of 512 (8*8*8) there are :
4*5 + 28*3 = 108 possible paths that lead to a position three squares from the target.
Hence the probability of ending the scatter three squares away is:
108/512 = 21%
The odds for two squares is a pain to do using this type of method.
It occurs to me that looking at my comment and Tiny’s, the odds in the original post are basically round the wrong way for 2 square and 3 square.
The odds in the graphic are wrong also, but for most peoples needs, just swapping the ‘2 square’ and ‘3 square’ odds would suffice.
actually, the odds in the graphic are right also, its just the odds written underneath that are put back to front, can you fix that just quickly coach?
Hey Coach,
Here’s an idea for a new post. What are the scatter odds on a kickoff? I suppose you could even go farther and say what the scatter odds are on a kickoff with the kick skill and/or the scatter odds of a kickoff landing deep in your opponent’s territory.
Just a thought.
Quite a good idea, though I got the odds from elsewhere. If someone wants to do that and submit it then I’ll be happy to publish it.
Playing with a Slaan team with Diving Catch and Hail Mary Pass, I worked out the odds of doing this using the silly painstaking method.
Not only do you have the 46.875% chance of catching the ball only one square away, if you do this next to some prone players, the ball will bounce again, potentially landing back in your square. Every downed player next to you will add 5.27% to that chance. (For a one catcher setup)
2 Diving Catchers can get you a 64.64% chance of being able to catch it.
3 can give you 79.49%
lol thanks for that extra info, must admit I’d never considered prone players nearby being useful for that.
Even better if it is the opposing players and you catch it off them huh!
Whilst it is good for a non-diving guy, having a prone player adjacent to you actually reduces your chances of making a diving catch – you can only attempt to make a catch in “an empty square in one of his tackle zones” that means that it reduces the chance by 5.27% in exchange for either a 1.98% or a 3.30% chance of scattering back into a catchable square (depending whether they are diagonally or orthogonally adjacent). Having a prone guy two squares away though can boost you chances although its only a +0.88% boost per guy and that is only if they are in the optimal position 2 squares away directly horizontally or vertically.
@Bungo Underhill a downed play 2 squares away would give you a 1 to 3 eighths (depending on relative location) chance of bouncing back into your diving catch zone. also doing this near an edge where the crowd can throw it back in if it scatters 3 times in a mutual direction might be interesting.
@Nick each downed player 2 squares away adds 1/8th of the percent of the square they are on.
Very funny and interesting theoretical stuff 😉 – no offense meant.
Ever since I had my HMP- and Diving Catch Combo i experienced
the chance is 100% that the ball will land more than one square away from my Catcher.
But that’s just me – and who cares for chances in BB anyway – these nasty
dice don’t, for sure.
But Coach, go on with your thoughts about odds, at least it gives me hope 😉
1 3 6 7 6 3 1
3 6 12 12 12 6 3
6 12 27 27 27 12 6
7 12 27 24 27 12 7
6 12 27 27 27 12 6
3 6 12 12 12 6 3
1 3 6 7 6 3 1
The number of ways three steps from the target can get you to each square. Actually the easiest way to work the odds. Note the total =512=8*8*8 ways of ending. And yes the odds are correct in the graphic
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I have the odds of it landing back in the square at less than 4.69%. The first scatter has a 100% chance of going 1 of 8 directions. To land back in the square you aimed it at, the second scatter can only go in one of two directions, both adjacent to the center square that was being aimed at. For example, if the first scatter is to the upper left diagonal square of the target, it can only go immediately right or immediately down to have a chance of landing back in the center square on the third scatter. Then the third scatter has a one in eight chance of landing back in the target square. 1/4 * 1/8 = 3.125%.
Right?
There are only two squares the ball can scatter to on the second scatter to be next to the starting square if it goes diagonally. If the first scatter is just vertical or horizontal then there are four squares the ball could scatter to on the second roll. I’ve not looked at your numbers but if they were based off the assumption that every second roll only has two options that may explain it?
I did the maths the table is 100% correct.