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Test #001: Minimize Risk!

Welcome to Elf Take! I’m your host Skip Tasteless. I want to thank Coach and BBTactics for hosting us on their site! We’re looking forward to a great relationship.  This is how Elf Take works…

I will provide you with scenarios from past games of Blood Bowl. Can you step up to the challenge and think like the coaches who were battling in these matches, or are you nothing but an armchair git!?

Let’s get started with a warm-up exercise…

 Mittledorf Smashers (Human) vs. Arnheim Seahawks (High Elves)

This game between the Smashers and the Seahawks has been kept scoreless thus far. You are the coach of the Arnheim Seahawks (High Elves). You were able to free up a group of players on your previous turn. Your last turn has just started and it is time to score! What’s the best way to get in the end-zone? Post your answers!

Goal:
  • Score the TD in the least amount of 2+ action rolls and blocks.  What’s the least amount of 2+ rolls?  Can you do this with all 2D blocking?
Rules:
  • You only have 1 turn left, and you have just started it.
  • Assume that all 1d and 2d (your favor) blocks will result in pushes. All 2d blocks in opponent’s favor will result as double skulls.
  • Ensure every 1d non-block action attempt is a 2+ (i.e. passes, catches, hand-offs, dodges, all should be 2+ for success). Assume successful rolls.
Score a TD in the least amount of 2+ rolls.

Score a TD in the least amount of 2+ rolls.

Challenge 1 - Score a TD!

Score the TD with the least possible 2+ rolls!

Rosters:

Arnheim Seahawks (High Elves - Red)

#PositionMVSTRAGIAVSkills
1Lineman6348
2Lineman6348Block
3Lineman6358AGI+
5Thrower6348Pass, Safe Throw
6Catcher8347Catch
7Catcher8347Catch
8Catcher8347Catch
9Catcher8347Catch
10Blitzer7348Block, Frenzy
11Blitzer7348Block, Tackle

Mittledorf Smashers (Humans - Blue)

#PositionMVSTRAGIAVSkills
1Blitzer7338Block, Strip Ball, Dodge
2Blitzer7338Block
3Blitzer7438STR+, Block, Tackle
4Thrower6338Pass, Sure Hands, Leader
6Ogre5529Guard, Mighty Blow, Bonehead, Thick Skull, Loner
7Lineman6338
8Lineman6338Kick
9Lineman6338Guard
10Lineman6338
12Lineman6338

View Skip's Answer

You can make the TD on 3 2+ rolls with 2D blocking. If you throw it from the right spot, there is no interception attempt.

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12 Responses to Test #001: Minimize Risk!

  1. air139 February 7, 2013 at 12:20 am #

    I can find a 2DB, 2+, 3+, 2+

    • Skip Tasteless February 7, 2013 at 12:28 am #

      Keep trying. It’s not a straight-forward solution.

  2. gcoleman76 February 7, 2013 at 12:57 am #

    Move Catchers 7 & 9 next to human player 7 and Elf player 3 (Squares M6 & M5),

    Blitzer 10 blitzes [b](2D Block)[/b] human 7 from square K4 Pushing Human Lineman number 7 into Elf Lineman 3. This leaves Elf Lineman 3 in square K7 and Human Lineman number 7 in L6.

    The Elf Blitzer has Frenzy so a further [b]2D Block[/b] pushes the Lineman into Square M7. (This leaves only 1 TZ on Elf Lineman number 3, we will come back to him in a bit 🙂

    Elf Thrower 5 now moves to Square J4 and throws to Lineman 3 (told you we’d be back) in Square K7 this is a quick pass and Lineman 3 has Ag5 these are therefore both 2+ rolls [b](2 rolls)[/b] and cannot be intercepted

    Lineman 3 makes a Dodge of 2+ [b](The Third Roll)[/b] to square J8 and runs it in for a TD with no more extra squares.

    [b]2 2D Blocks and 3 rolls of 2+[/b]

    High Elves are Awesome 🙂

    • LordTengil June 27, 2013 at 7:50 pm #

      Ha! Great one! I was like “oooh” two times, one for the chin push and one for the frenzy.

      Great challenge Skip!

  3. Mac222 February 7, 2013 at 9:13 am #

    That’s probably the right one gcoleman76!

    Nice challenge Skip.
    Keep them coming!

  4. Goofums Magee June 20, 2013 at 11:35 pm #

    I would have catche #6 dodge and blitz blitzer #10 off of catcher #8. Then thrower #5 moves to square D -1 and makes a 2+ pass to catcher #8. Catcher #8 makes a 2+ catch and two 2+ go for its to score.

    • Skip Tasteless June 27, 2013 at 10:42 pm #

      Hey Goofums, that’s too many rolls – i’ve counted 5! You’re asking Nuffle to spank you. Look at the solution. You can do this with 3 2+ rolls and 2D blocking.

      • Dan May 16, 2015 at 3:23 am #

        No, he’s right.

        The ‘best’ solution is only right if you agree that all rolls will be as you say (2+ or pushes). But then if you could assume that it really doesn’t matter how many rolls you make because you will always succeed.

        In the frenzy chain option you have:
        Block 1 @ 55.6% (as you need a push)
        Block 2 @ 88.9%
        Pass @ 97.2% (skill reroll)
        Catch @ 83.3%
        Dodge @ 83.3%
        Total chance = 33.3%

        In Goofums’ solution:
        Dodge @ 83.3%
        Blitz @ 88.9%
        Pass @ 97.2% (skill reroll)
        Catch @ 97.2% (skill reroll)
        GFI 1 @ 83.3%
        GFI 2 @ 83.3%
        Total chance = 48.55%

        Even if you started with the ‘correct’ solution and then switched if the frenzy knocked the human down your total chance only increases to 49.5%.

        • Skip Tasteless June 5, 2015 at 7:31 pm #

          Dan,

          You want to push the lineman from L-6 to K-7. That means you only need a 2+ pass, 2+ catch, and a 2+ dodge to score.

          97.2%
          83.3%
          83.3%

          However the catch is only 2+ if the lineman is in one tackle zone. that means your frenzy blitzer has to eliminate a tackle zone.

          That happens either on a knockdown on the first block, or by pushing or knocking down the target on the 2nd block.

          Rolling a (pow!, pow) = 55.5%
          Rolling a push when you need (push, pow!, pow) will happen (88.8% – 55.5%) = 33.3%

          So on a 2D frenzy blitz, the first block will end up in a knockdown 55.5% of the time.
          33.3% of the time will end up in a push AND WILL REQUIRE a second block.
          The second block will be 2D and can be (push, bothdown, pow! or pow). As a single roll this occurs 97.222% of the time.

          So you have 2 branches.
          A knockdown occurs 55.5% of the time.
          A push requires another block, but non-failure for that block occurs 97.222%.
          So 33.3% * 97.222% = 32.37%

          So 55.5% + 32.37% = 87.87% success rate for a frenzy blitz
          (This means 87.87% of the time you will either get a knockdown OR you will successfully remove the tackle zone on the second block)

          So this is how you calculate for it:
          Frenzy Blitz @ 87.87%
          Pass @ 97.2% (skill reroll)
          Catch @ 83.3%
          Dodge @ 83.3%
          Total chance = 59.26% with no reroll.

          This trumps the other scenario.

  5. McFluggleMuffin September 6, 2018 at 1:23 pm #

    Player 7 moves to L4, player 9 Blitzes from K5 to push human player 7 to M4, with a 2 dice block. Player 5 moves to J4 and throws a pass to player 3. 2+ to pass. 2+ to catch. Player 3 makes 2 2+ dodges to J8 and runs to end zone, making one go for it roll.

    Total is a 2 dice block and 5 2+ rolls, in a real game total chance calculation is:

    89.99% to succeed in block, with any of push or knock down,
    83.33% to succeed with throw, 97.22% after reroll, 87.49% to succeed with both,
    83.33% to succeed with catch, 72.90% up to this point,
    3 more 2+ rolls with a 57.86% chance of success, for a total of 42.18% chance of a touch down.

    Not the best by any means but a solution I guess.

    Plus with a touchdown on one more 2+ roll it becomes 49.21%, or effectively heads or tails chance.

  6. Lockmund September 8, 2018 at 11:01 am #

    Warning: incoming wall of math.

    I agree with gcoleman76’s solution with the double push, but I think everyone have their math wrong. Skip came close, but forgot about the third branch for success.

    I think we can all agree that we need a pass, (35/36) with the skill and that #3 needs to both catch and dodge on 2+, (25/36). In all, that means (35/36)(25/36)=875/1296. There are however three branches that will get us there.

    a) The first block was a P or P/p. That would be 5+ on one of two dices (5/9).
    b) We first only get a push and then we need anything but a dubskull. (1/3)(35/36)=35/108.
    c) We only roll a both down on the first block. Now we have to do an extra dodge and a GFI as well, both 2+. That would be (1/12)(25/36)=(25/432)

    These branches are all mutually exclusive so all we need to do is to add them up.

    (5/9)+(35/108)+(25/432)=(5*48+4*35+25)/432=(240+140+25)/432=405/432

    We should not forget the other part that has to happen.
    (875/1296)(405/432)=354375/559872=63,3% without a reroll.

    I also want to caution people from using more than one decimal when doing calculations like these There are still ways to succeed that we have ignored. For example, we get a push on the first block and a bd on the second. We then pass but fails to catch. Fortunately the ball bounces on the now prone lineman and the scorer gets a second chance to catch the ball. Low odds doesn´t mean no odds.

    Calculating the odds with a reroll is harder. The first block may be a double skull and then you have to seperate it into branches where the reroll remains or not. Now that we´ve done the no reroll case it is fairly easy to see how much we increase the odds in that particular case, it’s (1/36)(354375/559872), but there are more places where things may go wrong: the second block, the dodge, the catch or the the extra dodge and gfi we needed after a both down.

    We will however get a good estimate by just looking at the catch and the dodge as the other rolls will have two dices or may not even be required. 25/36 then increase to 25/27 and the total odds increase to 84,4%. If we add the dubskull on the first block case, then we push past 86%.

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