Test #007: Undead 1 TurnTD

Welcome to Elf Take!  I’m your host Skip Tasteless and today we have a challenge that is not for the faint of heart!

We are going to take a look at the one turn touchdown… not with Wood Elves or Skaven… that’s too easy…  We’re looking at a 1TTD with Undead!  No sprint, no sure feet.  When I first posted this, I was able to provide a workable solution, however, once the Orca-Cola and BBTactics community got involved, a more optimized solution was found.  We will cover that elegant solution as well.

If you can find the optimal solution (or a solution that is even better) without peeking at the answer, then you are definitely a Grade A Blood Bowl B.A. 😀  Let’s take a look at the challenge.

Boneyard Reapers (Undead) vs Darkside Marauders (Chaos)

The 2-1 grind…  a staple of Blood Bowl strategy.  During this Old World Football match, the Boneyard Reapers look to become another victim to the Chaos race… or are they?  You’re the Undead coach.  It’s the last turn and you’re receiving the kickoff.  What’s the best way to setup for the 1 turn TD?

Objective

Score a TD

Rules

• You must do it in 1 turn.
• Position a ghoul in the backfield to field the expected incoming kick.  You can still use him for chain pushing, but you must position him at least 6 spaces from the LOS.
• Assume the kickoff lands off the field, so you can give directly to your ball carrier.
• Assume you win a reroll during the kickoff.
• For simplicity, treat all chaos players as rookies.
• You can use everyone on your roster.
• Once you figure out your strategy, plug your moves into this Samba Calculator to get the probability of success and compare with Skip’s solution.  Blood Bowl Calculator

Rosters

Boneyard Reapers (Undead)

Darkside Marauders (Chaos)

[toggle title_open=”Hide Skip’s Hint” title_closed=”View Skip’s Hint” hide=”yes” border=”yes” style=”default” excerpt_length=”0″ read_more_text=”Read More” read_less_text=”Read Less” include_excerpt_html=”no”]Try to take advantage of the skill set…. such as Grab, Sidestep, and AGI+ on the Ghouls.[/toggle]

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This problem is very tricky, and my solution is not the one I envisioned at first glance. I had thought the Mummy with Grab could be used to allow a ghoul to blitz through the line. I also thought there would be a solution with an AGI+ Ghoul as a ball carrier. Unfortunately I could not figure either out. The solution here takes advantage of sidestep, but it requires a 5+ dodge O_o! If you can do better, let me know!

Here’s my solution: (Thank you to Mikkel Pahlke Fausing for his excellent tool! Original Play Creator)

Position your players as illustrated. Since the ball lands out of bounds, give it to Ghoul #3. Move Ghoul #4, so he marks Beastman (yellow) #3. This will make your blitz a 3-die block.

With Ghoul #5, blitz the Beastman with a 3-die block, but do not follow up. Push the Beastman into Ghoul #3. Take advantage of sidestep and push him up and to the left. Position Ghoul #5 as illustrated.

With Zombie #8, block the Beastman into Ghoul #3 and push him up.

Move Wight #7 so that he marks both Beastman #2 and Beastman #3. This will form part of the “T” needed for Mummy #1 and Mummy #2 to chain push. His guard will help give the mummies 3-die block support.

Complete the “T” with Zombie #5. He adds the extra strength support needed to give Mummy #1 a 3-die block.

Block with Mummy #1. It is here that you’re hoping for a knockdown. If Beastman #3 is knocked down, Ghoul #3 does not have to dodge out when he runs for the end-zone. Both scenarios are taken into consideration for final probability analysis.

Complete the “T” for Mummy #2. Mummy #2 should already have a 3-die block with the 2 guard players marking Beastman #2.

Block Beastman #2 with Mummy #2. In this situation you can get push, defender down, or defender stumbles. Push Beastman #2 into Beastman #3. Push Beastman #3 into Ghoul #3. Now Ghoul #3 can reach the endzone!

Run to the end-zone! Hopefully, Beastman #3 was knocked down so Ghoul #3 doesn’t have to dodge out. Run in between the line, this is a 2+ GFI as well as a 5+ dodge. The next move into the end-zone will require a 2+ GFI and a 4+ dodge roll. Remember to dodge into only 1 tackle zone! Touchdown! Now let’s check the probability analysis.

Samba Calculator Results:

There are two branches. The block by Mummy #1 can either end up as a push or as Beastman #3 getting knocked to the ground. If Beastman #3 is down then that’s one less dodge for Ghoul #3! Unfortunately the Samba Calculator does not let you compute using this type of branching system. We can still use the calculator to do the heavy lifting for us so we can get the answer we need!

When the 3D block is rolled you will have either a 70.3704% chance of rolling defender down / defender stumbles or a 25.9259% chance of rolling a push result. We have to take this into consideration for our final figures. The easiest way to do this is to allow Samba to figure out the probability of our two branches of events and then multiplying by the corresponding value of our block result. Since the probability for a no Team Reroll scenario is calculated by multiplication, we’re safe in skipping the 3D block when inputting the events into Samba. We’ll multiply that result with our known figures to probability for that particular branch of events.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down. Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 2D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (do not input this block – we know the probability of rolling this is 70.3704%)

4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Go For It 2+

Dodge 5+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Samba Result without Team Reroll: 9.441%

Multiply by 70.3704%

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 6.643%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 2D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (push result – do not input this block – we know probability = 25.9259%)

4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Dodge 3+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 5+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Samba Result without Team Reroll: 7.262%

Multiply by 25.9259%

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 1.883%

Team Reroll Calculation

If we make the assumption that we only reroll our 3D block on a failure then we can approximate the probability of success using a Team Reroll. We simply plug in our 3rd block as a 3D Block (push / defender down / defender stumbles) and we ignore the NoReroll result from Samba. We do this for both scenarios so we can get a range. The true answer lies somewhere in between.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down. Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 2D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)

4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Go For It 2+

Dodge 5+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Success Percent with Team Reroll: 20.928%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 2D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)

4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Dodge 3+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 5+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Success Percent with Team Reroll: 17.043%

Total Probability: Add both non-reroll branches to get probability of success in either scenario.

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 6.643% + 1.883% = 8.526%

Success Percent with Team Reroll: In between 17.043% and 20.928%

If the sidestepping ghoul was AGI 4 these probabilities go up to:

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 15.009%

Success Percent with Team Reroll: 32.181% – 34.448%

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[toggle title_open=”Hide Muffin Thief’s Solution” title_closed=”View Muffin Thief’s Solution” hide=”yes” border=”yes” style=”default” excerpt_length=”0″ read_more_text=”Read More” read_less_text=”Read Less” include_excerpt_html=”no”]

Muffin Thief from the Orca-Cola League found an incredibly optimized solution that requires 5 3D blocks and it makes the ball carrier an AGI+ ghoul.  Let’s see how he did it.

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down. Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 3D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (pushes required)

4th block 3D (pushes required)

5th block blitz 3D (do not input this block – we know the probability of rolling this is 70.3704%)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 3+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Samba Result without Team Reroll: 10.407%

Multiply by 70.3704%

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 7.323%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 2+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 3D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (pushes required)

4th block 3D (pushes required)

5th block blitz 3D (push result – do not input this block – we know probability = 25.9259%)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 3+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Samba Result without Team Reroll: 9.461%

Multiply by 25.9259%

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 2.453%

Team Reroll Calculation

If we make the assumption that we only reroll our 3D block on a failure then we can approximate the probability of success using a Team Reroll. We simply plug in our 3rd block as a 3D Block (push / defender down / defender stumbles) and we ignore the NoReroll result from Samba. We do this for both scenarios so we can get a range. The true answer lies somewhere in between.  Let’s work on Branch #2 first.

Branch #2: Beastman pushed. Ball carrier Ghoul has to dodge out.

1st block 3D (pushes required)

2nd block 3D (pushes required)

3rd block 3D (pushes required)

4th block 3D (pushes required)

5th block blitz 3D (push / defender down / defender stumbles)

Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul

Go For It 2+

Dodge 4+ with dodge skill

Go For It 2+

Dodge 3+ with dodge skill

——————————————————————-

Samba Result with Team Reroll: 24.674%

Branch #1: Beastman knocked over. Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.

Press X on the 2+ Dodge in Samba.

Samba Result with Team Reroll: 26.521%

——————————————————————-
Total Probability: Add both no-reroll branches to get probability of success in either scenario.

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 7.323% + 2.453% = 9.776%

Success Percent with Team Reroll: In between 24.674% and 26.521%

My results:

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 6.643% + 1.883% = 8.526%

Success Percent with Team Reroll: In between 17.043% and 20.928%

A few notes to consider….

Muffin Thief elaborated on his solution.

Not counting ball handling (which is the hardest part of any non-elven/skaven 1ttd play), the odds of success are:  3d – 2 success, 3d – 2 success, 3d – 2 success, 3d – 2 success, (branching path at this point as it may eliminate a dodge)…

Branch 1:  3d – 2 success (a push), 2+,4+,3+ dodge (W/RR), 2+ GFI, 2+ GFI.

Branch 2:  3d – 2 success (a pow), 4+,3+ dodge (W/RR), 2+ GFI, 2+ GFI.

Note:  While not important in this example, as the ball scatters off the pitch, if the backfield ghoul that moves in for an assist in step 4 needs to pickup the ball and throw it forward, his spot can be replaced by Wight 6.  This adds a 3+ dodge and changes 2 blocks from 3d to 2d.

Congratulations Muffin Thief, you have been immortalized in the annals of BB Tactics.  Don’t let the fame get to you. 😀

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