Overview:
Whether it be from crowd surfing, fouling, or CPOMBing (Claw, Mighty Blow, Piling On) the opposition, player removal can play an integral role into a team’s strategy to dominate the field and thus the game. The following tables can be used to determine which player is most susceptible to injury. This can aid you in your positioning strategy and deciding whom to attack or foul.
Conversely, these tables will also aid you in gauging the risks involved with failures stemming from dodges, leaps, and GFI’s.
Armour Break Probability:
For every +1 modifier / assist you get on an armour roll, subtract 1 from the AV.
| AV | Roll Needed | Probability (2D6) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2+ | 100.00% |
| 2 | 3+ | 97.22% |
| 3 | 4+ | 91.67% |
| 4 | 5+ | 83.33% |
| 5 | 6+ | 72.22% |
| 6 | 7+ | 58.33% |
| 7 | 8+ | 41.67% |
| 8 | 9+ | 27.78% |
| 9 | 10+ | 16.67% |
| 10 | 11+ | 8.33% |
| 11 | 12 | 2.78% |
Injury Probability (already assuming successful Armor Break):
Stunty and Niggling Injuries add +1 modifiers. If you broke armour with a natural roll, then your Mighty Blow and Dirty Player skill can also add a +1 modifier as well. Crowd Surfs are immediate Injury Rolls, no Armour Break.
| Modifier(s) | Stun | KO | CAS | OUT! (KO+CAS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0 | 58.33% | 25% | 16.67% | 41.67% |
| +1 | 41.67% | 30.56% | 27.78% | 58.33% |
| +2 | 27.78% | 30.56% | 41.67% | 72.22% |
| +3 | 16.67% | 25% | 58.33% | 83.33% |
Injury Odds for Piling On (already assuming successful Armor Break):
| Modifier(s) | Stun -> KO | Stun -> CAS | KO -> CAS | Stun -> OUT! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0 | 39.58% | 26.39% | 30.56% | 65.97% |
| +1 | 43.29% | 39.35% | 47.84% | 82.64% |
| +2 | 39.04% | 53.24% | 65.97% | 92.28% |
| +3 | 29.17% | 68.06% | 82.64% | 97.22% |
Probability of Armour Break AND Injury:
These tables can be used to calculate injury odds for niggling injuries or for stunty players. If you’re calculating odds for a goblin (stunty), refer to the second table (+1 Inj.). If you’re calculating odds for a goblin with a niggling injury, refer to the bottom table (+2 Inj.)
- This assumes you Pile On only on Stuns
- To get odds for “removing a player from the pitch”, add KO and Cas probabilities together.
- On foul situations, for every assist you get, subtract 1 from the AV.
For extra analysis, you can multiply these values with values from the Blocking Statistics & Odds Tables to get you the success rate of a KO or CAS before you throw a block. If you see any errors or have any comments, feel free to write them below.
This is GOLD. Thanks very much for posting.
You’re welcome! Check out the tentacles page for similar stats:
http://bbtactics.com/tentacles/
This needs just one addition. Thick skull means that you often get a -1 modifier when playing dwarfs. Add that and its complete. Otherwise a brilliant table.
Thick skull only lets an 8 on the injury table be the prone outcome. Its NOT a modifier! But you’re right, it could be implemented in the tables above.
This chart made me realise how much a monster a Goblin’s Looney is if it works properly.
Even with 9 AV, it’s still like paper when you remove the -3AV properly.
… Not to mention gang fouls. >.>
Arn’t your KO –> Casualty for piling on to high?
It’s basically (%KO x % Casualty) + % Casualty which gives
+0 = 21.84%
+1 = 36.27%
+2 = 54.40%
+3 = 72.01%
Is there a reason for the 10% additional you have? Maybe I’m missing something
This wasn’t one of my articles so I’m not 100% sure what calculations went into what, I’ve never really concerned myself much focusing on damage causing skills!
If anyone with a head for numbers wishes to offer any input on this then please feel free!
The table is setup so that if you want to figure out KO OR Casualty… you just add both numbers.
For instance, an AV6 player with a niggling injury will have a 25.3% chance of a knockout.
That same player has a 23.0% chance of getting a casualty.
So for this player to get a casualty or a knockout you just add both: 25.3 + 23 = 48.3% chance of removal!
So if you want to look at the stats of a CPOMBER, let’s take a look at row 7 for MB PO
+0 = 24.6% KO + 20.8% Cas = 45.4% chance of removal
+1 = 23.5% KO + 28.7% Cas = 52.2% chance of removal
+2 = 18.7% KO + 37.2% Cas = 55.9% chance of removal
Disclaimer: The below rant is from an AGI coach who plays competitive coaches who know positioning, know when to foul, and love to position CPOMBER for max damage.
Now let’s combine this with blocking statistics. (I’m assuming blitzer has tackle and all blocks are 2d)
If your opponent does not have block, you have a 75% chance of knocking him down.
If your opponent has block / wrestle, you still have a 55.6% chance of knocking him down.
Most linemen, don’t have block, but depending on your team make-up you’ll have a mix of players with block, wrestle, or neither. That being said, we can calculate minimum and maximum values for the number of players to be removed from the game specifically from blitzes. We will calculate based on all of your opponent’s players having block. We will also calculate based on all of your opponent’s players having no block. The true probability will fall in between.
Take .556 * .454 * 16 = 4.03 removed players
Take .75 * .454 * 16 = 5.448 removed players
So if you’re up against a CPOMBER with tackle, you can REASONABLY EXPECT his blitzes to remove 4.03 to 5.448 of your players from the pitch! This does not include fouls, blocks at the line of scrimmage, or failed dodges. Yay! Much skill! (BTW – in light of this, it’s up to the AGI coach to reduce these numbers through gameplay)
Hence why as an AGI coach, I mercilessly mock CPOMB coaches.
“Oooh, look at my shiny uber Claw, Mighty Blow, Piling On, Jump Up, Tackle player! So awesome! I’m such a tactical coach!” 😀
Give me a break…
LOL. Of course, I say this in jest. But if any reader would like to “put me in my place”, come over to http://www.oldworldfootball.com and sign up. I’ll be glad to jam with you. 🙂
Yes a coach using POMB like myself or CPOMB as I face in every other game at the moment is statistically odds or to remove players are a relatively effective rate but this is not something that can be counted on and while it can form a part of a solid game strategy its not something that can be relied upon.
Elves with Dodge are successful 92% of the time and even that’s not something that you should do without close attention to the actions priority so the odds of removing players are way too low to be counted on to become a sound tactic.
Far more important is the ability to protect the ball and the ball carrier and to force the Elven coach to roll against far less favorable odds in order to score. This combined with Grab, Stand Firm, Tackle, Guard, Sidestep, Fend, Diving tackle are what win matches against Agility teams with Bash the Killing is the bonus fun reward we receive for having to concentrate unfaltering for 16 turns so we can contain the Elf Bull Sh*t plays.
Good response. You make an excellent argument, and your response was very well written.
I still think CPOMBERS are dumb, though. 😛
It just leads to elf teams being too scared to engaged, has the elves running away, and the game not being as exciting.
I’ve had teams “decimated” because of these stupid skills, in both winning and losing scenarios. It’s just frustrating in long leagues.
The thing is only Skaven or Underworld teams can quickly get a effective CPOMBer because there blitzers begin with block and even then they need 51spp before they are effective against Elves and to get the full combination of Block, Tackle, MB, Juggernaut, Claw, Pile On and Jump requires them to hit legendary and is not possible for the teams considered more threatening with the combination (Chaos/Nurgle).
I agree the combination can be scary but it requires a heavily focused development which takes time and considerable investment and to be used effectively in a high development environment it requires a lot of supporting players/skills that allow the coach to effectively attack your squad.
Finally I’ve had teams destroyed by the combination but I’ve also had teams destroyed by sides that don’t have it and its my experience when your having ‘one of those games’ that it really does not matter what ‘Kill’ skills the opponent has because there dice are on fire. Honestly the only defence against an opponent that is killing with a glance is solid positioning and defensive play while refusing to get frustrated and therefore aggressive towards there players.
Not sure if we are talking about the same table. I was not looking at the excel-like table but the one above it (Injury odds for PO column 4. It was just a mathematical error I could not resolve rather than looking for a way to CPOMB which none of my teams are currently geared for.
The iPad’s computer teams however, seem to be full of overpowered C and MB players which I’m trying to avoid… but without a PC I’ll have to wait until I can play real people (other than my brother on our old RL set).
TLDR: Hi MP,
The Piling On table was included as a “raw” table for people who want to make more advanced calculations… like I’m going to show below. Short answer, yes, the tables should be accurate. You will see how quickly the probabilities drop, though.
********************************************************
Hi MP. The Piling On table can be a little confusing. You should treat it as if you haven’t rolled the first injury roll yet.
The Piling On column for X->Y should then be read as “What are my chances of getting a Y result if I decide to reroll on an X result?”
So for example KO -> Cas means “What are my chances of getting a Casualty if I decide to reroll on a KO event?”
Let’s take a closer look at the KO -> CAS column of the Piling On Table.
You can calculate this for yourself by using the first table (Armor Break table). For example, a Casualty requires an injury roll of 10+. From the table, this has a 16.67% chance of occurring. So you have a 83.33% chance of failing to commit a casualty. If you have a reroll (piling on), you have a 83.33% * 83.33% = 69.43% chance of failing.
100% – 69.43% = 30.56% probability of success for rolling CAS. This should match the first cell of the KO->CAS column.
Let’s look at the other end of the spectrum… a +3 modifier. Instead of a 10+ roll, you only need a 7+ roll for a casualty! That’s a probability of 58.33%
To fail that roll you need 100% – 58.33% = 41.67%
41.67% * 41.67% = 17.36% chance of failing with a reroll
So 100% – 17.36% = 82.64% chance of success for rolling CAS even if rerolling KOs.
So now. If you want to take out the block-less goblin with a niggling injury with your mighty blow, piling on, block, tackle player you have to account for 3 probabilities…
Knockdown * Armor Break * Injury Roll
Knockdown using 2D dice for skill-less opponent (from “Blocking Statistics and Odds Table article) = 75%
The Goblin has an AV of 7, so you need 8+ = 41.67%, with Mighty Blow that value goes up to 58.33%
And finally, you calculated an Injury roll of 82.64%
Now that we have our figures… BUT WAIT! Our injury calculation was made with +3 modifiers. That means our Mighty Blow modifier was not needed for our armor break. (Remember the Mighty Blow modifier can be used for either the armor break or injury roll)
So for this calculation lets assume our Mighty Blow is not needed for the armor break. That means we must roll a 8+ for armor break.
Knockdown * Armor Break * Injury Roll
.75 * .4167 * .8264 = 25.82% chance of Casualty if MB not used on armor break
This is the probability of successful casualty if you don’t use MB on the armor break. To calculate the percentage of casualty for when MB is required for the armor break you need to calculate the probability of rolling a 7..
We can quickly figure this out…
Take the probability of 7+ (58.33%) and subtract 8+ (41.67%)
So to roll exactly a 7 on 2 six-sided dice your probability is: 16.66%
Now we have this:
Knockdown * Armor Break (7) * Injury Roll (2+ modifier)
.75 * .1666 * .6597 = 8.24%
25.82% + 8.24% = 34.06% chance of Casualty and 2 SPP 🙂
BUT INSTEAD OF GOING THROUGH THAT ENTIRE ORDEAL JUST USE THE COLORED TABLE!!!!
Go to the Armor Break and Injury Table and go down to +2Inj for Goblin (niggling + stunty) then go to the POMB Cas column and the AV7 row.
From there you should see: 37.2% so….
Knockdown * (Armor Break * Injury Roll)
75% * (37.2%) = 27.9% success rate for knockdown + CAS if reroll on Stun
The implication is if you reroll only on stuns (not KOs) you will have a 27.9% of giving the goblin a casualty.
This can be verified if we use the Stun->CAS column from the Piling On table and repeat the steps from above.
Knockdown * Armor Break * Injury Roll
75% * 41.67% * 68.06% = .2127 +
75% * 16.66% * 53.24% = .0665
—————————————————
27.92% success rate for knockdown + CAS if reroll on Stun
Just goes to show that MD on the injury roll for a removal takes it from 41% to 58%.